Lafayette, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

149
FXUS63 KIND 141132
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
632 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Turning much colder today with scattered snow showers.
  Minor accumulations possible.

- Gusty winds up to 35 mph today with wind chills dropping into
  the teens and single digits by sunset.

- Light accumulating snow Thursday night into Friday, up to an inch
  or two possible.

- Additional light snow chances through the weekend.

- Well-below normal temperatures later this week into early next
  week with subzero wind chills at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 257 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Temperatures remain elevated as of 06z under thick mid-level cloud
cover and persistent west-southwesterly winds. Temperatures around
50 degrees have been reported for much of the southern half of
central Indiana. However, winds are beginning to become westerly as
a cold front approaches from the north. Weak frontogenesis ahead of
this boundary has lead to light rain from about Bloomington
southward. This should diminish with time as the approaching front
shifts the best large-scale forcing east.

Further north, low stratus is already beginning to enter central
Indiana with Lafayette reporting overcast skies at 3000 feet agl.
This is the first sign of strong cold air advection, and low clouds
will spread southward through the morning hours. Despite how cold
the advancing air mass is, the front itself is not sharp or well-
defined. Observations upstream have shown a gradual transition from
WSW to W to NNWerly winds. Very cold air is lagging a bit behind,
with below-freezing temperature not expected to arrive until after
sunrise. Despite the diurnal arrival of the cold air, it does not
appear that it will matter much. Temperatures are expected to drop
into the 20s through the afternoon hours today with gusty
northwesterly winds. Winds may gust to 35mph at times, leading to
wind chills in the teens and single digits by sunset. Expect low
temperatures in the teens by Thursday morning with wind chills near
zero.

Guidance shows weak instability within the approaching air mass as
low-level lapse rates steepen with time. This instability, combined
with broad cyclonic flow, should allow for the formation of numerous
snow showers later this morning. These snow showers could mix with
rain at times early, but a full change-over to snow is expected once
the cold air fully sets in. The north-northwesterly wind component
aligns perfectly with Lake Michigan, allowing for maximized fetch
and lake-effect potential. While lake-effect snow totals will be
naturally much higher immediately downwind of the lake, some
enhanced totals may creep into portions of central Indiana. The
instability and broad lift of the approaching air mass may allow the
dominant lake-effect snow band to persist unusually far south this
afternoon into tonight. The exact location of this band will be
tricky to pin point since it may meander with time. Locally higher
snowfall, up to an inch or two, may be possible should this band
materialize and remain relatively stationary. Elsewhere, most
locations may see a dusting of snow to a half of an inch.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 257 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

A pattern shift is expected in the long range with a trend towards
colder than average temperatures. As mentioned in the short term
discussion, strong ridge-building is occurring over the eastern
Pacific. Ensemble guidance show this ridge becoming a dominant
feature while evolving into a classic Rex Block. Ridging over the
West Coast then reinforces troughing over the Midwest and Eastern
US. The developing blocking pattern then locks it in for at least a
week.

Global teleconnections support the developing pattern, with a
positive Pacific North American Pattern (PNA) and an Arctic
Oscillation (AO) quickly trending negative. A negative AO favors a
highly amplified jet stream while the positive phase PNA favors
ridging over the western US and troughing over the east. The
combination of the two will help prolong deep troughing over the
Midwest and eastern US. Troughing in turn promotes colder than
average temperatures.

Scaling down a bit, guidance is in good agreement showing a series
of vort maxes diving southeast within the broad northwesterly flow
on the eastern flank of the Pacific ridge. Each likely has an
attendant cold front with a reinforcing shot of cold air. Though
potent, these systems lack moisture. The first wave, expected to
arrive on Friday, will pass well to our north. A period of warm air
advection ahead of this system looks to provide sufficient
isentropic lift for light snowfall early Friday. Guidance is a bit
mixed on how strong this warm advection is, but an inch or two of
snow is not out of the question. Strong cold air advection and
northwesterly flow resumes following Friday`s system. Low-level
instability and embedded vort maxes aloft should allow for numerous
chances of light snow through the weekend.

Temperatures through the period, as alluded to above, look to be
well-below normal...except Friday, with the brief period of warm air
advection. Guidance is in good agreement showing sub-freezing highs
from Saturday to the end of the period. Sunday looks to be the
coldest day, with highs in the teens/low 20s and lows in the single
digits. Wind chills likely dip below zero for a good chunk of the
weekend into early next week.

Days 8-14...ensemble guidance is hinting at another pattern shift
late next week where ridging shifts eastward and flattens somewhat.
Such a pattern may allow for a trend towards warmer (but still below
normal) temperatures and greater precipitation chances. An east-west
oriented baroclinic zone may develop which will help determine the
eventual storm track. Ensemble guidance tends to keep the AO
strongly negative while allowing the PNA to trend negative as well,
which adds weight to the potential pattern described above. However,
ensemble guidance diverges considerably adding to forecast
uncertainty. That said, take individual models runs / deterministic
guidance with a grain of salt.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 630 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings through the day and into tonight.

- Scattered snow showers arriving after 14z for all terminals, brief
  reductions in visibility possible.

- Northwesterly wind gusts between 20-30 kts possible through 00z.

Discussion:

A cold front will push across Indiana from the north this morning.
Widespread snow showers are expected along and behind the front,
which likely arrives between 14-16z. Rain may mix in initially,
but should transition to snow as temperatures fall through the
morning. Scattered snow showers and flurries may continue on and
off through a majority of the afternoon Wednesday, and potentially
into the evening. Brief reductions in visibility are likely in
the heavier snow showers.

MVFR cigs are expected in the wake of the cold front as an upper
trough and associated dynamics continue to push across Indiana. MVFR
ceilings persist through the afternoon, with guidance showing some
clearing around 00z onward. Extent of clearing is in question as
some guidance hangs onto stratus through 06z-12z. Broad cyclonic
flow favors stratus lingering longer than modeled.

Winds initially out of the west become northwesterly behind the
front. Northwesterly wind gusts between 20-30 kts are possible at
times through the day. Winds gusts should diminish some what after
00z, but wind speeds should remain elevated around 10kt.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...Eckhoff
AVIATION...Eckhoff