Lafayette, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

758
FXUS63 KIND 130013
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
713 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing chances for rain late Saturday through midday Sunday.
  Highest rain amounts are expected across far southern central
  Indiana

- Ice Jam development remains a concern this week as temperatures
  continue to moderate through 50s to around 60 by middle of next
  week

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Much of the day has been as advertised with high pressure continuing
to build southeastward within modest AVA. This has created mostly
calm conditions. That said, there has been fluctuations in surface
winds as sensible heat fluxes increase diurnally; still winds have
stayed mostly below 5kt.

A jet streak over the mid-Mississippi valley has led to a narrow
area of left and patchy light showers and sprinkles along with
increased low level clouds over the lower Wabash Valley. This will
likely clear up with eastward extent as subsidence keeps the low
levels dry. Still, most of the area will remain cloudy throughout
the evening and into tonight within quasi-zonal flow.

Tonight, currently expecting temperatures to remain above guidance
as skies remain mostly cloudy. Current forecast is for lows near 30
with a few areas over NE central Indiana potentially dropping into
the mid 20s. Confidence in mostly cloudy skies is less over this
same area.

Tomorrow, an increase in WAA within westerly winds will aid in
buoying surface temperatures considerably. There will still be
scattered to broken cloud cover that could impede temperature gains
some, but temperatures are still expected to exceed 50 tomorrow with
highs between 50 and 55 along and south of the I-74 corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

The long term will be a bit more active to start as the east coast
trough breaks down and the low level jet stream interacts with the
ridge over the plains. In return strong WAA across the mid-
Mississippi valley will lead to low level pressure drops, eventually
creating a mid level shortwave as CVA increases. High pressure over
the Great Lakes region will likely shift the steering flow to
westerly, of which is placing a majority of ensemble surface low
pressure output south of Indiana. This will likely place the bulk of
the synoptic forcing south of the area as well, with the greatest
precipitation axis over the southern Ohio Valley to Tennessee
Valley.

Ensemble guidance has trended upward on a second precipitation axis
over the northern Ohio Valley as strong midlevel isentropic lift and
some low level deformation maximized the available moisture over the
area. There is significant uncertainty regarding the magnitude of
moisture return as well as the time it will take to moisten a
relatively dry antecedent PBL. This has led to a fairly wide range
in potential QPF outcomes south of the I-70 corridor ranging from
0.25"-1.0". Current expectation is QPF will trend towards the lower
end of these potential outcomes as higher resolution guidance better
handles a more narrow zone of synoptic lift, especially along and
just south of I-70.

The aforementioned WAA will lead to a 5 to 10 degree warm-up this
weekend, but this warming trend will be curtailed some by an
increase in mid level cloud cover. Current expectation is for high
temperatures each day in the upper 40s to low 50s, but any areas
that receive rain or an increase in low level cloud cover Saturday
could end up slightly lower.

Following the passage of this mid level wave, pressure increases
throughout the whole column will lead to a significant warm up for
early next week. How warm we get will depend on the placement of the
polar jet; regardless there is high confidence in temperatures well
above normal for Monday through Wednesday. Precipitation chances are
more uncertain and will depend how the emerging trough over the
Eastern Pacific interacts and phases with the previously discussed
mid-continental ridge.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 713 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Impacts: None

Discussion:

Surface high pressure will continue to drift eastward through the
TAF period. This will allow for winds to start off light and
variable, but as the center of the high gets further away, winds
will become more southerly to south-westerly by tomorrow afternoon,
with speeds of 5-10 kts. Otherwise quiet, VFR conditions expected
with some passing clouds aloft.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...Updike
AVIATION...KF