Lafayette, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

374
FXUS63 KIND 140202
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
902 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly clear tonight, Partly Sunny on Saturday. Continued warming
into the next work week.

- Scattered to widespread rain showers Saturday Night to midday
Sunday...rainfall 0.25-0.75 inches for most locations. Best chances
across southern central Indiana.

- Ice Jam development remains a concern this week...as temperatures
 continue to moderate through 50s to around 60 by middle of next week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 901 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Upper ridging is moving into the area while a surface high continues
to slowly drift further east. Skies are currently mostly clear with
just a few clouds drifting through. Forecast is in pretty good shape
and only minor adjustments were needed for the temperatures and dew
points to better match current obs. Lows tonight are expected to be
near 30 thanks to light winds and mostly clear skies.

An approaching system will start to bring in increasing cloud
coverage from the SW by the early morning hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 200 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Surface analysis late this morning shows high pressure in place
across KY/OH and West Virginia. This system was providing mostly
clear skies across the area, along with light southerly flow. Aloft,
water vapor imagery shows ridging in place over the high plains with
northwest flow spilling across WI/Indiana and Illinois, along with
subsidence. A few Cirrus upstream over IA and MN were shown on
GOES16 streaming toward Indiana. Temperatures were rising in to
the lower 50s across much of the forecast area.

Tonight...Models keep the ridging over the high plains still west of
Indiana and this will allow for continued lee side subsidence across
Indiana. The surface high is expected to slowly drift toward
Virginia, but maintain mild southerly flow across Indiana. Forecast
soundings overnight remain dry but do indicate some upper level
saturation from time to time, indicative of some high passing CI.
Warm air advection will be ongoing overnight. This along with mostly
clear skies will allow temperatures to fall to the lower 30s, with
some upper 20s possible in more rural areas.

On Saturday...Aloft, the ridge axis to the west is expected to pass
across Indiana through the day and subsidence will remain prevalent.
Southerly lower level flow will be dominate, as the surface high
drifts off the coast of the Carolinas and low pressure begins to
develop over eastern TX. This will allow for another warm day as
warm air advection remains in play. Highs should be able to exceed
today`s values, reaching the lower and middle 50s.

As the Surface low begins to push eastward and the ridge axis passes
by afternoon, high cloud will be more able to invade the skies
across Indiana. This will result in a mostly sunny morning, followed
by increasing high clouds in the afternoon. Forecast soundings depict
this by showing the arrival of upper level saturation by the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...
Issued at 200 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

The weekend will begin a transition towards a much milder weather
pattern for central Indiana with broad upper level ridging taking
hold over most of the CONUS. That said, there is a narrow trough
within the broad ridging helping supply a disorganized area of
cyclogenesis over the lower Mississippi Valley tonight through
tomorrow. By tomorrow night, a broad area of low pressure will near
from the south east providing chances for rain Saturday night
through Sunday morning.

As mentioned previously, there is significant uncertainty regarding
the magnitude of moisture return as well as the time it will take to
moisten a relatively dry antecedent PBL. This has led to a fairly
wide range in potential QPF outcomes south of the I-70 corridor
ranging from 0.25"-1.0". Current expectation is QPF will trend
towards the lower end of these potential outcomes as higher
resolution guidance better handles a more narrow zone of synoptic
lift, especially along and just south of I-70.

The aforementioned WAA will lead to a 5 to 10 degree warm-up this
weekend, but this warming trend will be curtailed some by an
increase in mid level cloud cover. Current expectation is for high
temperatures each day in the upper 40s to low 50s, but any areas
that receive rain or an increase in low level cloud cover Saturday
could end up slightly lower.

Following the passage of this mid level wave, pressure increases
throughout the whole column will lead to a significant warm up for
early next week. How warm we get will depend on the placement of the
polar jet; regardless there is high confidence in temperatures well
above normal for Monday through Wednesday. Precipitation chances are
more uncertain and will depend how the emerging trough over the
Eastern Pacific interacts and phases with the previously discussed
mid-continental ridge.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 646 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Impacts:

- Rain may start to move in at IND after 00z tomorrow

Discussion:

Winds will generally be from the SSW throughout the period at around
7 kts or less. Tonight into the morning could see some passing mid
to high clouds. An approaching system will start to increase cloud
coverage from the south tomorrow afternoon. For IND, rain from the
system may arrive sometime between 00z and 06z tomorrow evening.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...Updike
AVIATION...KF