Lafayette, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

780
FXUS63 KIND 162318
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
618 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Partly Cloudy tonight with patchy fog possible.

- Partly Sunny and even warmer on Tuesday.

- Ice Jam development remains a concern this week...as
  temperatures continue to moderate through 50s to around 60 by
  middle of next week

- Wind gusts up to 35 mph Wednesday with record temperatures possible

- Strong to severe storms possible Thursday

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 357 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows a broad area of high
pressure stretching from the middle Atlantic States across KY and TN
to Louisiana. Light southerly flow was in place across central
Indiana. Aloft, water vapor showed shallow but broad ridging in
place across the plains with slight lee side NW flow spilling into
Indiana and the Ohio Valley. GOES19 shows high clouds streaming
across Central Indiana, flowing from the ridge. The southerly winds
and warm air advection have allowed temperatures to soar into the
middle and upper 50s.

Tonight...

A mostly clear and quiet night is ahead. Models depict the broad
ridging to the west to become a bit stronger over the plains states.
This will continue to allow lee side subsidence aloft to spill
across Central Indiana amid NW flow aloft. Warm air advection will
remain in place as seen at 850mb and temps there will reach 6C
overnight. Forecast soundings keep the lower levels very dry through
the night, as surface high pressure to the southeast of Indiana
continues to dominate our weather and provide a mild southerly flow
of air to Central Indiana. Dew point depressions are not expected to
be as as small as last night with ongoing warm air advection and
high cloud aloft. Some patchy fog cannot be ruled out, but
widespread dense fog does not appear likely at this time. Low
temperatures in the upper 30s will be expected.

Tuesday...

Models show the strong ridging aloft pushing into and across Indiana
and the Great Lakes on Tuesday. Meanwhile within the lower levels
low pressure begins to strengthen and deepen over the northern
plains, allowing for a warm front to develop, spanning IA to
northern IN. This will place Central Indiana within the warm sector
through the day on Tuesday, with warm southerly flow in place. Once
again, forecast soundings show a solid mid level inversion that will
prevent CU development. However, upper levels remain saturated,
indicating high clouds aloft. Overall, partly sunny skies will be
expected. Given our ongoing warm air advection, temperatures should
get slightly warmer than today/s values and will trend 1-2 degrees
above persistence.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 357 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Tuesday Night Through Wednesday.

An active pattern is expected to continue to dominate the forecast
through the work-week, characterized by series of troughs over the
western US and an unseasonably strong ridge centered over the
Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. This setup will help to maintain a
steady fetch of sub-tropical moisture and anomalous warmth into
central Indiana, with 850mb temperatures remaining 1 to 2 standard
deviations above climatological means for mid-February.

Tuesday night through Wednesday will see a series of weak
disturbances ejecting from the primary western trough. Low-level
theta-e advection will ramp up significantly Tuesday night as a 45-
55 knot low-level jet LLJ develops. This will likely trigger
widespread light rain showers and perhaps a few elevated
thunderstorms, particularly across the northern counties where
isentropic lift will be maximized. By Wednesday, central Indiana
should reside fully within the warm sector. Forecast soundings show
a potent EML advecting in from the southwest, which will likely act
as a formidable cap, suppressing widespread convection during the
afternoon despite surface temperatures potentially climbing into the
mid-60s to potentially near 70. The current forecasted low Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning is 53F which would break the daily
record warmest low of 46F back in 1981. The current forecasted high
for Wednesday in Indianapolis is 68F while the daily record high is
66F. In addition to the warmth, the deep boundary layer and
strengthening pressure gradients will allow for occasional gusts up
to 35 mph.

Thursday Through Monday.

The main focus for the long term remains squarely on the Thursday
and Thursday night timeframe as a more robust negatively tilted
shortwave trough lifts toward the Great Lakes. Forecast uncertainty
persists regarding the exact timing of the associated surface low
and the subsequent frontal passage. GEFS and EPS ensemble members
continue to show this spread in the track of the surface low, which
will ultimately dictate the northern extent of the warm sector and
the available surface-based instability.

From a kinematic standpoint, Thursday`s environment is quite
favorable for severe weather with 0-6 km bulk shear values of 60-80
knots combined with 0-1 km SRH exceeding 250 m2/s2. The primary
limiting factor remains the thermodynamic profile. If the
aforementioned EML remains intact through peak heating, convection
may be delayed until the arrival of the primary cold front Thursday
evening. However, if the cap weakens earlier, discrete cells would
be possible in the warm sector. This matches a classic high-
shear/low-CAPE environment, with damaging winds and a lower-end
threat for tornadoes being the primary concerns. Moisture quality is
high for February, with surface dewpoints progged to reach the lower
60s, though the relatively meager lapse rates could limit the
overall magnitude of CAPE to under 1000 J/kg. While there remains
some failure mechanisms for severe weather, confidence is increasing
in at least some impactful storms.

Behind the front late Thursday night, surface flow will become more
westerly as the low continues to track to the northeast into the
Great Lakes with only a few lingering showers during the day on
Friday. High pressure will then settle in for the weekend, quiet
conditions but significantly cooler temperatures, with highs
struggling to reach the 40s on Saturday. Another weak system may
approach late Sunday into Monday with at least a low-end chance for
precipitation but higher confidence in cooler than normal
temperatures to start the work-week.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 617 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Impacts:

- Chance of MVFR fog near daybreak Tuesday

Discussion:

Winds will be light again tonight but additional mid and high cloud
is likely to keep widespread fog from forming. That said, the ground
remains cool and moist and patchy MVFR fog is certainly possible.
Will carry a TEMPO group at the outlying sites for 3SM BR BCFG.

Any fog will mix out in typical diurnal fashion Tuesday morning,
with winds strengthening to around 10KT or so out of the south, and
broken midlevel cloud expected.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...Nield