Lafayette, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

582
FXUS63 KIND 311748
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
148 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind gusts of 30 to 40 MPH at times today and Thursday

- Wet pattern through the week and into the weekend, with multiple
  rounds of showers and storms expected, which may produce renewed
  flooding along area waterways

- A few strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall are
  possible across mainly northern portions of central Indiana late
  today and tonight

- Potential for additional heavy rainfall and severe weather for
  late Thursday and again late Saturday

- Drier and cooler weather for early next week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 927 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

March will end with yet another anomalously warm day as central
Indiana basks in the warm sector of a slowly-approaching and
elongated weather system aligned from the Great Lakes back to the
Lower Missouri Valley.  Increasing surface gradient ahead of the
corresponding cold front will boost southwesterly winds from 10-20,
gusting up to 20-30 mph this morning...to 15-25, gusting as high as
30-40 mph this afternoon.  No fire weather concerns, however, as
flow will continue to advect greater humidity into the region...with
dewpoints already 55-60F for most locations, peaking in the low 60s
for most during midday hours.

Following a record-high start (64F at Indianapolis this morning),
and observations as of 900 AM EDT in the low to mid-60s for most
spots...an additional 15-degree climb is expected, bringing upper
70s and low 80s to the region.  Often BKN mid cloud should be the
rule today...although should decks scatter out for a couple more
hours than expected, 80s would be on the table for most counties.

Slight severe thunderstorm risk north of I-70 is mainly for this
evening...although an isolated strong/severe cell cannot be ruled
out over the region`s northern tier later this afternoon. More
likely will be sprinkles/few showers/lone thunder from the
Lafayette to Muncie areas this afternoon while much of central
Indiana remains dry into the evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

A frontal zone to the north will slowly push southward into the
region late today into tonight. A good surface pressure gradient,
steep low level lapse rates, and strong low level flow will combine
to produce wind gusts to around 40 MPH at times this afternoon,
despite increasing mid and high cloud ahead of the approaching front
and as a consequence of upstream convection. Additionally, despite
this cloud cover, temperatures should climb well into the 70s across
the area, with the low 80s likely south.

As the boundary approaches the area later today and moves into the
region tonight, shower and storm chances will increase from north to
south across the area. Moderate instability developing along and
ahead of the boundary coupled with ample deep layer shear will
present the potential for a few strong to severe storms, with the
best chances over the north late this afternoon into this evening.
How early the severe threat begins will depend upon the activity of
one or more remnant outflow boundaries from ongoing convection over
eastern Iowa/northern Illinois. Earlier activity would be more
likely to pose a threat for all hazards, with wind becoming more of
a concern with time as upscale growth becomes more probable.

Multiple rounds of showers and storms will be likely tonight into
Wednesday evening as the front stalls in the region before lifting
back northward Wednesday night as a warm front. Despite only subtle
midlevel disturbances, strong frontal forcing in a deeply moist
environment will work to produce these showers and storms, which may
produce heavy rainfall at times as precipitable water values
approach or exceed climatological maximum for the time of year.
Given ample rainfall and flooding in recent weeks, will have to
closely monitor hydrologic situation with time, particularly as
multiple rounds of precipitation occur. Current hydrologic ensemble
forecasts indicate a substantial likelihood of at least minor
flooding developing this week along much of the Wabash and portions
of the White and East Fork White as well.

A much more substantial upper level low will drive a stronger
surface system into the Great Lakes Thursday into Thursday night,
bringing high PoPs for showers and thunderstorms back to the area.
The even more substantial surface pressure gradient will produce
another quite windy day on Thursday, with gusts pushing 40 MPH again
likely. Additionally, sufficient instability and shear is likely to
exist for another at least minor severe threat Thursday into
Thursday night, though uncertainty is obviously greater with time.

With the exception of Wednesday, with the front in the area,
temperatures will be well above normal, as much as 20 to 25 degrees.
Even Wednesday appears likely to still be above normal across much
of the area, if cooler than today and Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Friday into Saturday Night....

A progressive upper pattern is suggested to be in place as we start
Friday. The wave of forcing dynamics producing Thursday`s rain will
have exited east, while weak ridging builds across the upper
midwest. Meanwhile a stronger upper trough and low will emerging
from MT and WY.

Models suggest the frontal boundary left in the wake of Thursday`s
systems will get hung up over northern Indiana, keeping Central
Indiana within the warm sector on Friday. Forecast soundings suggest
dry mid and upper levels through the day with some saturation within
the lower levels through the day. The dry air aloft looks to be due
to subsidence from the weak upper ridging aloft. This should allow
for mainly a dry and warm day, but small chances for rain cannot be
ruled out because of the lingering frontal boundary and the warm and
moist surface flow within the warm sector.

This warm and an moist air mass with little forcing available looks
to remain in place on Friday night and into early Saturday. Thus at
this point many dry hours will be expected, but pops cannot be
removed due to the low, stray shower chance. Temperatures on Friday
and again on Saturday will remain rather warm, and above normal as
we reside within the warm sector. Highs in the 70s will be common.

The best chances for rain will be on Saturday afternoon and Saturday
Night. The previously mentioned upper support over MT and WY will
arrive across Central Indiana by Saturday afternoon, and the upper
wave will pass through Saturday Night. This systems will drag a cold
front across Indiana on Saturday evening and Saturday night as low
pressure moves through through the Great Lakes. Given the favorable
ingredients for precipitation, showers and thunderstorms will be
expected and high pops will be used. Confidence for rain on Saturday
afternoon and night is growing.

Sunday and Monday...

Outside the chance for a lingering morning showers behind the front
on Sunday morning, Sunday and Monday will be mainly dry days across
central Indiana. The upper trough axis is suggested to exit east of
Indiana while ridging over the western CONUS builds. This will lead
to leeside subsidence flowing across the northern plains and allow
surface high pressure to develop and build across Indiana on Sunday
afternoon into Monday. The cooler, Canadian high pressure system
will provide slightly below normal temperatures, with highs in the
low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 148 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Impacts:

- Thunderstorms in vicinity of all terminals except BMG this
  afternoon with coverage increasing between 00-06Z.

- Southwest winds gusting 30-37KT during the afternoon

- Wind shift to North with MVFR conditions in light rain developing
  at KIND after 09Z.


Discussion:

Scattered thunderstorms have been persistent over eastern portions of
IL and have moved into far western parts of IN the last hour. This
activity will move east and be in the vicinity of KHUF, KIND and
KIND through the 20-21Z period. Gusty SW winds from 30-37 kts will
continue this afternoon before diminishing around 00Z.

Additional TS activity is expected to form across northern portions
of Indiana along a cold front between 21-23Z. This activity will
push gradually SE and affect all terminals except KBMG between 00-
06Z with occasional MVFR visibility in the heavier showers. A cold
front will push south and move through KIND after 09Z with MVFR
ceilings expected.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AGM
SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...Crosbie