Lafayette, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

441
FXUS63 KIND 101506
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1106 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread minor/moderate river flooding continues south of I-70

- Locally heavy rainfall is expected tonight into Wednesday, which
  will exacerbate or prolong ongoing flooding

- Scattered severe storms with all hazards are possible tonight and
  Wednesday

- Record warmth today but cooler temperatures expected Thursday into
  the weekend

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 913 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Warm air advection has induced pressure rises over the eastern Ohio
Valley, with a resulting status layer draped across the region. How
this evolves throughout the day will be the main forecast problem
during the morning and afternoon hours. Current expectation is for
and EML to advect into central Indiana throughout the day and slowly
mixout the stratus layer with broken skies likely late this morning
and scattered cloud cover this afternoon. SW portions of the state
are likely to mixout first and therefor may see slightly higher
afternoon temperatures versus the rest of central Indiana.

The 12Z suite of high resolution models continues to show central
Indiana capped in the otherwise buoyant warm sector with any
initiation late this afternoon and evening likely to be N/NW of the
area along the instability boundary. We will continue to monitor for
any changes, but the current expectation is for the severe threat to
hold off until late this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Stratus continues to increase in coverage across the forecast area
early this morning as warm advection strengthens across the Ohio
Valley. Temperatures remained warm with 07Z readings in the 60s.

Active next 48 hours setting up across the region as a frontal
boundary currently stretched out across the Great Lakes slowly
drifts south into northern Indiana by late today. A surface low
currently organizing over the High Plains will track E/NE along the
boundary and serve as a focal point for convective development by
late afternoon and early evening across the mid Mississippi Valley
and lower Great Lakes. Convection will remain to the northwest of
the forecast area initially through most of this evening...with
greater impacts coming late tonight and Wednesday as the front
gradually pivots across central Indiana and the Ohio Valley.

Through Early This Evening

As mentioned...stratus has become more widespread and better
organized across the region since Monday evening as low level
moisture advects into the Ohio Valley from the southeast. The KIND
ACARS sounding shows very nicely that the moisture has become
trapped beneath an inversion near 900mb that should only strengthen
through daybreak. Not out of the question to see a few light showers
or drizzle develop over the next few hours as a subtle wave aloft
passes south of the region through the Tennessee Valley otherwise
expecting predominantly dry conditions through the morning.

Stratus will remain prevalent into this afternoon with the potential
for breaks to develop in the canopy as boundary layer mixing
increases. The influx of warm...moist air from the Gulf will bring
an unseasonably humid airmass into the region this afternoon with
dewpoints in to the low and mid 60s. Model soundings show an
increasingly unstable environment developing across the region with
impressive mid level lapse rates. Locally across central Indiana
however...that will not mean much as a stout cap sets up in the 700-
750mb layer and keeps a lid on any convective development. The
approach of the aforementioned surface wave in tandem with an
increase in 850mb flow will help to unlock the convective
development near the boundary by late today with the potential for
explosive initiation with supercells as the dominant convective mode
as the cap breaks from northeast Missouri into northwest Indiana.

This Evening through Wednesday Night

There is growing confidence that the cap will hold for much of the
evening across the forecast area with robust convection remaining in
the vicinity of the boundary extending from near Kansas City to just
south of Chicago to near Detroit. With boundary layer flow
persisting from the W/SW...storms should remain largely north of the
forecast area as a result. The arrival of stronger 850mb flow in the
03 to 06Z timeframe will finally aid in weakening the cap and may
enable convection to develop further south as the boundary drifts in
our direction.

Confidence is increasing in more substantial convective impacts
across the forecast area coming in the overnight and early Wednesday
morning period with the front dropping into the northern Wabash
Valley by 12Z Wednesday. Storms tonight will carry a tornado and
large hail risk...especially across far northern portions of the
forecast area...with strong 0-1km SRH values and hodographs showing
solid curvature in the lowest 2-3km and abundant instability within
the hail growth zone. Convective mode will become increasingly
chaotic as the night progresses with both multicell and supercells
likely as clusters shift southeast into the forecast area through
the predawn hours. This will likely promote damaging winds as an
increasing threat with 50+kt winds in the lowest 2-3km and a more
unidirectional wind profile while hail and tornadoes transition to
more of a secondary risk.

Areas of convection will be ongoing Wednesday morning and present
lower confidence in the severe weather threat ahead of the front by
the afternoon as it presses through the forecast area. The greatest
concern for convective intensity will be across the southeast half
of the forecast area which where any recovery in instability would
likely be enough to generate strong to isolated severe wind gusts
with ample shear and SRH lingering within the boundary layer. The
availability instability however remains the question mark as
lingering showers and leftover convective cloud debris from earlier
may not allow for much of a recovery over the southeast half of the
forecast area with a more substantial threat for severe weather
displaced instead to the southeast of central Indiana where airmass
recovery will be more pronounced. Rain will end Wednesday evening
with skies clearing late as a colder and drier airmass expands into
the region.

While the severe weather threat is valid...the flooding potential
remains a concern with heavy rainfall impacting much of the forecast
area late tonight into Wednesday. Precipitable water values will
peak near 1.50 inches which is near 300% of the climatological
normal. While the convective nature of the rainfall will produce
non-uniform rainfall totals...most locations will see 1 to 1.5
inches of rain with pockets of higher amounts expected. This will
exacerbate and potentially worsen ongoing river flooding while
offering the risk for localized flash flooding due to high
rainfall rates.

Temps...with the warm start this morning...there is high potential
to break a record high this afternoon as mid 70s abound across the
forecast area. The record high for today at Indy is 74 from 2009 and
the current forecast is for a high of 75. Temperatures will remain
in the 60s south of the front tonight and Wednesday morning then
will begin falling once the front passes. Much colder air Wednesday
night will serve as a reminder that winter is not technically over
yet. Expect lows in the low to mid 30s by early Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The upper level pattern across the country will transition to
northwest flow in the wake of the midweek system with a flat ridge
off the California coast. Fast moving storm systems will track
through the progressive flow aloft and remain north of central
Indiana through the first part of the weekend. An amplifying upper
level trough will help to strengthen low pressure over the central
Plains Sunday. The low will pivot across the region late Sunday with
a trailing cold front bringing another opportunity for rainfall to
wrap up the weekend. Colder air will then spread into the Ohio
Valley for early next week as the upper level pattern becomes
increasingly amplified with a western ridge and a eastern trough.

Lingering rain showers across southeast parts of the area will
depart Wednesday evening with clearing into early Thursday as deep
subsidence overspreads the Ohio Valley with a broad area of high
pressure. Briefly cooler temperatures for Thursday will bounce back
to slightly above normal levels Friday and Saturday as low level
flow swings back around to southerly and becomes gusty at times.
With the exception of a fast moving surface wave moving through the
Great Lakes early Friday and bringing a few light showers to
northern portions of the forecast area...dry weather is expected
through Saturday evening.

A warm front will extend into the region by late Saturday as low
pressure begins to organize over the central Rockies. Precipitation
should remain to the north of the boundary for much of Saturday
night. The ejection of the surface low quickly into the region by
late Sunday will bring rain and embedded convection as the attendant
cold front sweeps across the region Sunday evening. Snow may mix in
Sunday night before precipitation ends as colder air will advect in
rapidly behind the boundary.

In the wake of this system...colder air will filter into the area
with an amplified upper level ridge west-trough east developing for
the first half of next week. After highs in the low and mid 60s over
much of the region Sunday....temperatures will struggle to rise out
of the 30s Monday and Tuesday with below normal readings lingering
for much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 540 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings through the first half of the day
- Scattered showers and possibly thunderstorms by mid to late
  evening at KLAF then late tonight at the other terminals with MVFR
  ceilings returning
- Periodic wind gusts peaking at around 25kts, especially this
  afternoon and tonight

Discussion:

Stratus encompasses much of central Indiana early this morning and
will largely persist at MVFR levels into the early to mid afternoon.
Stratus will mix out and scatter somewhat late today into this
evening. Convection will fire to the northwest of the region late
today and spread east into northern Indiana this evening. There
remains a possibility that storms may make it as far south as KLAF
mid to late evening but overall confidence is growing in convective
impacts at the terminals holding off until late tonight continuing
into Wednesday morning.

S/SW winds will continue through tonight with peak gusts at around
25kts this afternoon into early Wednesday morning.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Updike
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...Ryan