Lafayette, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

470
FXUS63 KIND 182027
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
327 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog possible late tonight.

- Scattered strong to severe storms likely Thursday afternoon into
  evening with the primary threats damaging winds/isolated tornadoes.

- Colder for the weekend, with scattered light snow possible Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 327 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Tonight...

The lead shortwave trough progressing through the Great Lakes has
carried with it a psuedo-dryline into northern portions of Indiana
into eastern Illinois. Mixing of drier air aloft in the BL has
shunted the moisture axis eastward this afternoon extending along
the Ohio River valley, with several weaker moisture
discontinuities/surface pressure troughs noted on surface analysis
and radar imagery across central Indiana. As the dryline boundary
slows down its eastward advancement this evening owing to
decoupling/weakening of the stronger flow aloft, expect it to stall
across western portions of central Indiana. Another in a series of
shortwave troughs will rotate out of the west coast longwave trough
into the central plains tonight. Associated with this feature,
surface/low level pressure/height falls will aid in the
boundary/moisture axis to retreat northwestward. The pattern looks
favorable for patchy fog to form late tonight. A greater threat for
dense fog would exist if not for the increasing mid level FGEN clouds
moving in after midnight as well as surface winds remaining in the 5-
7 kt range. In addition, subtle low level forcing with the frontal
boundary may support a few showers/sprinkles towards morning.


Thursday...

A few light shallow convective showers/sprinkles will be possible in
the morning before the effective warm front shifts away from central
Indiana. Meanwhile, a surface low pressure will deepen over the
lower MO valley during the morning moving towards the Quad cities
area by 00Z. An associated dryline will move into the MS valley by
early-mid afternoon (18-20Z). Convection is expected to initiate
along this dryline during this period, moving quickly towards and
into central Indiana by late afternoon/early evening (21-00Z).
Dewpoints within the moisture axis are expected to be between 54-
57F. Forecast soundings depict two pronounced inversion across
central Indiana, one centered around 850 mb being an effective
remnant base of the EML from Wednesdays dryline, and the second one
a subsidence inversion centered between 400-500mb, on the
equatorward side of the strong upper level jetstream core of 130-150
kt. As a result, instability is not overly impressive (500-800 j/kg
of MUCAPE). Strong deep layer shear profiles (0-6 km from 60-80 kts)
support supercell characteristics, but there is still some concern
that the threat for a deep enough cloud layer (with aforementioned
400-500mb inversion) for charge separation/lightning will be
mitigated. Therefore have opted to carry high pops but scattered TS
wording. As far as hazards go, relatively fast storm motions will
support some damaging wind potential although low level lapse rates
will be marginally supportive. Forecast hodographs show around 150-
200 m2/s2 0-1 SRH after 22Z, so the threat for isolated tornadoes is
also possible with any storms that are already rotating. The threat
for severe hail seems mitigated given the following reasons (shallow
layer of buoyancy, relatively mild BL temps (60s) and lack of a
deeper layer of steep lapse rates limiting updraft intensity,
despite strong vertical shear profiles.

Thursday Night...

Rain/Thunder/Severe threat should come to an end quickly between 03-
06Z with passage of surface trough/remnant dryline. A cold front
will move into central Indiana after 06Z. Steep low level lapse
rates and strong CAA behind the front will support increasing
westerly wind gusts up to 30 mph towards 12Z. In addition a few
light sprinkles will be possible across areas north of I-70 on the
fringes of strong mid level forcing.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 327 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Friday and Saturday...

More seasonable temperatures return for Friday into Saturday behind
the low pressure system. A tighter pressure gradient along with cold
advection will bring breezy conditions Friday, with gusts into the
30 to 40 mph range possible, especially north.

Sunday and Monday...

An upper level low will move southeast through the Great Lakes
region around Sunday, bringing a brief return to winter to central
Indiana. Some uncertainty remains in the timing and strength of the
upper low, so specifics on timing and PoPs may change. At least some
scattered light snow showers will be around the area on Sunday, with
the potential for up to a dusting of snow, mainly across the
northeastern forecast area.

Temperatures will top out in the 30s on Sunday and Monday. Lows
Monday night will be in the teens for some areas.

Tuesday and beyond...

Temperatures will moderate as the upper low exits the area. A weaker
upper trough could bring some light precipitation on Wednesday.
Highs by Wednesday may return to around 50 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1224 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings return late tonight with possible IFR ceilings/vis
  after 09Z
- Scattered showers early Thursday, with thunderstorms in the
  afternoon

Discussion:

Moderately strong low level flow will continue to support wind gusts
from 24-28 kts this afternoon from the WSW, with a gradually turn to
the south this evening as winds decrease. Areas of MVFR ceilings
have ended at all but KBMG, and these are expected to end shortly.

Attention turns to later tonight with the possible development of
IFR ceilings and patchy IFR vis as a weak frontal boundary retreats
northward as a warm front, with MVFR ceilings expected to develop
after 08Z. Confidence is not high enough at the moment to include
a tempo for IFR conditions in the TAFs. Scattered light showers
and drizzle however are expected with this warm frontal boundary
passage between 08-15Z.

South winds will increase during the late morning as another
stronger storm system moves into the MS valley. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected after 18Z and will include VCTS for
KIND for the period 20-00Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Crosbie
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...Crosbie