Lafayette, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

283
FXUS63 KIND 181434
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
934 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind gusts up to 35 mph today with record temperatures likely

- Strong to severe storms increasingly likely on Thursday, greatest
  threat near and south of the I-70 corridor

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 934 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Forecast is on track this morning. Rain has just about exited the
forecast area, and showers across southern Indiana look to remain
south of the area. Clouds were decreasing from the west.

As drier air works into central Indiana today, lower clouds will
decrease from the west. Satellite shows an uneven western border to
the clouds, so some areas will clear faster than others. Some cirrus
will move through at times. Sunshine and mixing will allow
temperatures to reach record or near record levels this afternoon.
Adjusted hourly temperatures but made no changes to forecast highs.

Some of the very dry air to the west may sneak into the far
northwest forecast area, allowing minimum humidity to drop into the
25 to 30 percent range this afternoon. Fortunately, winds will be
gradually diminishing during the day today as the pressure gradient
relaxes some.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 257 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Deep low pressure located over the northern Plains has promoted the
development of a strong low-level jet this evening. Enough mixing
has allowed some of this momentum to reach the surface, with gusts
up to 30kt occurring around 2am. Breezy conditions may persist into
the day, though a gradual weakening is anticipated as the MSLP
gradient relaxes a bit. Warm air advection on the back of this
potent low-level jet has allowed temperatures to gradually rise
through the night so far, with readings in the low to mid 50s as of
2am.

Additionally, moisture return has brought low stratus northward as
well. Rich boundary-layer moisture is present with ceilings in the
1000-2000 ft range. However, the air immediately above the boundary
layer is quite dry. The bulk of dynamic forcing associated with the
low is passing well to our north. With only modest isentropic lift
in place, our chance of rain showers does not appear great.
Nevertheless, a few showers or sprinkles are possible through the
early morning hours, especially further north.

Dry air associated with the system`s dry slot arrives later this
morning or early afternoon. No substantial air mass change is
anticipated behind the system`s weak attendant cold front. This is
because a second system is rapidly taking shape over the southwest
US, which will mitigate cold air advection by allowing winds to
quickly regain a southerly component. Dry air, sunshine, and
efficient mixing should allow for very warm temperatures today. In
fact, temperatures may be pushing record highs in a few places with
readings near 70 degrees expected.

Renewed moisture return ahead of the second system arrives tonight,
with low stratus and isolated sprinkles. Lows overnight are likewise
expected to be mild, with readings dipping to around 50 for most
locations. This system is the one that will bring severe weather
potential during the day Thursday. See the Long Range discussion
below for details.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 257 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Thursday through Thursday night...

The main focus for the long term remains on the Thursday and
Thursday night timeframe as a more robust negatively tilted
shortwave trough  and associated low pressure system lift toward the
Great Lakes Region. There is some forecast uncertainty regarding the
exact timing of the surface low and subsequent northerly movement of
the warm front, but confidence continues to increase in the
potential for strong to severe storms.

Most CAMs are in good agreement depicting little to no convection
through about midday Thursday due to a capping inversion. A warm
front associated with the surface low is expected lift northward
Thursday afternoon with low-level theta-e advection helping to erode
the cap. A pseudo dryline stalled across central Indiana Thursday
morning should also lift north during the day acting like a warm
front, but gradual PBL moistening behind this boundary is likely not
going to be enough to erode the cap until the main warm front pushes
in.

By the afternoon hours, most high resolution guidance depicts
convection developing along the advancing warm front though there
are slight differences in timing, generally ranging from the
afternoon to early evening hours. This suggest there is less of a
concern for the capping inversion to limit the severe threat, but
the slight differences in convective initiation timing and magnitude
of instability could still limit the extent of severe weather. From
a kinematic standpoint, Thursday`s environment is quite favorable
for severe weather with strong effective shear values and 0-1 km SRH
exceeding 200-250 m2/s2. Latest CAMS generally depict modest
instability with over 500-750+ J/KG of SBCAPE which would likely be
conducive for severe weather potential in this highly sheared
environment.

It is worth noting most models keep the more favorable
thermodynamics near/south of the I-70 corridor. Further north,
higher uncertainty in sufficient moisture return leads to lower
confidence in the severe threat. Given the environmental setup,
multicells and supercells are the favored storm mode with the
potential for upscale growth towards the evening. Significant low-
level veering with strong flow aloft supports the potential for
supercells capable of producing isolated tornadoes with damaging
wind gusts and isolated large hail also possible.

The threat for severe weather will most likely be during the
afternoon and evening hours before convection diminishes from west
to east into the overnight. Look for drier air to filter in late
Thursday night providing quiet weather conditions. Breezy conditions
are expected though.

Friday through early next week...

Look for temperatures to trend cooler late this week through early
next week as ensemble solutions generally show decreasing heights
aloft with upper troughing persisting across the eastern CONUS.
Surface high pressure briefly building in Friday through early
Saturday will likely provide mostly quiet weather. A strong MSLP
gradient still in place Friday combined with diurnal mixing could
promote strong wind gusts between 30-40 mph.

Guidance depicts multiple shortwaves passing through the region over
the weekend returning low precipitation chances to the forecast, but
uncertainty remains due to very limited moisture return. Some wintry
precipitation could also mix in as temperatures steadily fall though
any QPF amounts will likely be very light so no impacts are expected
at this time. Look for highs to fall into the 30s Sunday and Monday
while lows fall into the 20s and possibly upper teens.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 631 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Impacts:

- LLWS ending early this morning
- MVFR ceilings ending this morning, becoming VFR
- MVFR ceilings return tonight
- Scattered showers are possible early Thursday, with thunderstorms
  in the afternoon

Discussion:

Strong southwesterly flow continues with low-level wind shear around
40kts across central Indiana. This should diminish quickly this
morning as a cold front passes through. Additionally, the cold front
is expected to clear out the MVFR stratus that persists across the
region. A return to VFR conditions is expected by the afternoon.

VFR conditions continue into tonight, until a second storm system to
our west allows southerly flow to resume bringing another round of
MVFR stratus. Eventually, some scattered showers are possible after
about 14z Thursday. The best chance of rain will be later in the day
just beyond the end of the current TAF period. Showers and
thunderstorms, possibly strong to severe, are expected Thursday
afternoon and evening.

Winds out of the southwest this morning are quite gusty, with gusts
between 25 to 30 kt. These winds become more westerly behind the
cold front while gradually diminishing this afternoon. Speeds drop
below 10 kt around 00z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...Eckhoff