Lafayette, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

431
FXUS63 KIND 241357
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
957 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and storm chances return tonight through the weekend

- Heavy rainfall and flash flooding a primary concern late Thursday
  night through Friday with 1-3 inches of rain possible

- Hot and humid conditions expected for much of next week with
  multiple days in the 90s

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Expect a quiet day today with surface high pressure still
centered across central Indiana. Latest surface analysis depicts
the surface high centered near or just ESE of the area. The
surface high will continue to shift east through the day allowing
for winds to become southwesterly. This along with plentiful
sunshine should warm temperatures into the upper 70s to low 80s.

Current visible satellite imagery depicts enhanced cloud cover
across Northern IL extending northeastward into the Upper Great
Lakes Region. These clouds are associated with a weak disturbance
which will move in tonight. No precipitation is expected through
the day, but look for a noticeable increase in clouds from the
northwest around the late afternoon or evening hours. Otherwise, enjoy
another comfortable summer day with dewpoints remaining in the
50s before storms chances and higher humidity return to the
forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Cool but comfortable early morning as high pressure remains across
the Ohio Valley. With mostly clear skies and light winds...
temperatures at 06Z were largely in the 50s under ideal radiational
cooling conditions.

The high pressure will keep dry and pleasant conditions across
central Indiana today but the arrival and passage of an upper level
wave tonight will bring the return of scattered convection to the
region. Quasi-zonal flow aloft in tandem with a frontal boundary
becomes nearly stationary over the Ohio Valley will reestablish an
active regime for the Ohio Valley late Thursday into the
weekend....highlighted by the potential for a soaking rainfall and
renewed flooding concerns late Thursday night through Friday. The
front will be forced north of the region by late weekend as the
upper level pattern transitions to deep ridging over the Mississippi
and Ohio Valleys. This will bring an extended period of hot and
humid weather to the region beginning Sunday and continuing for much
of next week.

Today through Thursday

High pressure over the region this morning will drift east and
weaken through the course of the day as an upper level wave and
frontal boundary approach from the upper Midwest. Expect another
pleasant day under the influence of the weakening high with low level
thermals suggestive of afternoon temperatures running a few degrees
warmer than highs on Tuesday. Sunshine will be abundant for most of
the day but an influx of moisture aloft on the back side of the high
will trend towards increased cloud coverage by late day aided by
convection moving through the Great Lakes and the potential for
scattered storms over Illinois along the axis of deeper moisture.

The convection to our north should weaken over lower Michigan as it
moves into a more hostile environment by late afternoon with renewed
development focused in the vicinity of the boundary over northern
Illinois and southern Wisconsin. This will track southeast into
northern Indiana through the evening and will move into northern
portions of the forecast area tonight in a rapidly weakening state
as model soundings show the remnants of a mid level cap and less
than optimal moisture return. Anticipate however that scattered
convection will linger with the presence of some elevated
instability and a slow but steady pooling of higher PWATs into the
region ahead of the frontal boundary into Thursday morning. Storms
will carry a threat for locally heavy rainfall as the front settles
over the forecast area.

Weak surface ridging attempts to reestablish over the area on
Thursday but the presence of the boundary across central Indiana
interacting with a progressively moist and unstable airmass by the
afternoon warrants a continued threat for scattered convection
focused especially across the southern two-thirds of the forecast
area. Could see a few stronger cells with gusty winds but the
overall risk for severe weather remains low through Thursday
evening. Locally heavy rainfall will remain the primary concern.

Thursday Night through Saturday Night

A surface wave developing on the frontal boundary across the High
Plains will kick east late Thursday and track east into the Ohio
Valley on Friday. A feed of rich Gulf moisture will advect north
into the region in advance of the surface low and interact with
increasing low level convergence along the boundary to bring the
potential for a widespread soaking rainfall from the predawn hours
Friday through much of the day. Support continues to strengthen for
highly efficient rainfall rates late Thursday night into Friday
focused across the southern half of the forecast area...highlighted
by PWAT values climbing to near 2 inches...deep saturation through
the column and a freezing level rising to near 15kft suggestive of
warm rain processes. Considering the recent wet conditions from the
active pattern of late...torrential rainfall producing flash
flooding is a growing concern on Friday with 1 to 3 inches possible.

The front will meander over the region through Saturday night...
possibly shifting towards the Ohio River Friday night before
returning north on Saturday. The continued presence of the boundary
over the region will keep the risk for scattered convection across
the forecast area through the first half of the weekend. Will need
to monitor the possibility of a convective cluster impacting the
region Saturday night on the eastern side of an approaching upper
level ridge that will eventually force the frontal boundary back to
the north of the region on Sunday.

Sunday into Next Week

The threat for scattered convection will linger into the first half
of Sunday but the overall trend will be toward drier conditions as
the front shifts north and deep ridging aloft expands into the Ohio
Valley. This will serve as the transition point towards
progressively hotter and more humid conditions that are likely to
last well into next week. Multiple days with highs in the 90s are
anticipated through much of next week with the highest heat indices
of the summer so far rising into the low 100s during the afternoons.

Beyond the 7 day period...the upper ridge will retrograde into the
central Plains as we approach the July 4 holiday weekend which would
take an edge of the heat and may introduce a risk for convective
clusters riding along the periphery of the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 534 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Impacts:

- Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm may impact terminals
  tonight

Discussion:

VFR conditions will continue through this evening. High pressure
remains the primary influence across the Ohio Valley with mainly
clear skies and light winds this morning. A small area of clouds
with ceilings near 7kft may impact KLAF for a short time this
morning otherwise expect a sunny start to the day.

Mid and high clouds will steadily increase along with few to
scattered cu this afternoon as an upper level wave approaches the
region from the northwest. Widely scattered convection may impact
KLAF during the evening but the greater threat for rain and storms
will come overnight with potential impacts at KBMG...KHUF and KIND
in the predawn hours Thursday. Have introduced prob30s at all
terminals for a 4 to 5 hour period late tonight.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Melo
AVIATION...Ryan
DISCUSSION...Ryan