Lafayette, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

558
FXUS63 KIND 012325
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
725 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat index values between 105 to 110 daily through Friday

- *Extreme Heat Warning* in effect through Friday evening

- Thunderstorm chances will increase Friday through the holiday
  weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Overview.

An intense heat wave will continue across central Indiana through
Friday with dangerously hot and humid conditions expected. The
Extreme Heat Warning has been extended through 8pm Friday with
peak heat index values of 105 to 110 possible each afternoon and
little to no relief from the heat overnight. Look for some slight
relief this holiday weekend into early next week as storm chances
begin to increase.

Today through Friday night...

Guidance continues to depict upper ridging deamplifying through the
end of the week allowing for rain chances to eventually return late
Friday once subtle impulses begin to approach. While the ridge
should break down, the hot and humid airmass is already in place so
look for dangerously hot conditions to continue through Friday with
little relief overnight. Look for large scale subsidence to keep
weather conditions mostly quiet until the ridge flattens out towards
the end of the work week allowing for waves aloft to move through.
Deep-layer wind shear for storm organization appears weak, but
strong destabilization and steep low-level lapse rates could support
isolated damaging wind gusts Friday afternoon or evening.

Saturday through early next week...

Long range guidance depicts a few shortwaves moving through aloft
during the period. Weakening large scale subsidence and at least
modest dynamics from the approaching impulses will provide greater
opportunities for convection, particularly over the weekend.
Potential for diurnal convection can also be expected with strong
daytime heating atop an anomalously moist PBL.

A few severe storms cannot be ruled out given strong destabilization
each afternoon. The primary threat would be isolated damaging wind
gusts from microbursts in the weakly sheared environment, mainly
during the afternoon or evening hours. A few models still suggest
the potential for a few MCSs to develop near the region over the
weekend. Confidence on this scenario remains low due to a large
spread in model solutions, but overall flow could allow for any
storm cluster to propagate towards central Indiana. Specific
details will remain uncertain until models become better aligned.

Humid conditions will continue through the weekend while
temperatures remain hot. Some slight relief from the heat appears
possible this weekend into early next week with additional chances
for convection. Guidance also suggest a front associated with a more
organized shortwave could dive south early next week. ECMWF and GEFS
members differ on exact timing, but the boundary will likely
reinforce convective chances along with helping to trend
temperatures closer to seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 724 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Impacts:

Chance of brief MVFR/IFR VIS in patchy fog within 09Z-12Z tonight

Discussion:

Mainly VFR conditions will continue across central Indiana through
Thursday evening...with patchy fog late tonight possibly dropping
visibility to MVFR/very brief IFR levels at KBMG/KLAF, mainly within
10Z-12Z.  Otherwise very warm and humid conditions will continue
through the TAF period as the prevailing stacked subtropical ridge
continues to spin over the eastern third of the CONUS.

FEW cumulus around 4,000 feet will diminish through the early
evening leaving only stray cirrus overnight...ahead of a mostly
clear Wednesday AM and another afternoon with FEW/SCT cumulus to end
the TAF period.  Near carbon-copy of winds, varying slightly from
SSW at night to more SW during midday/afternoon hours...with flow
falling below 7KT by 04Z...and again mixing up to 7-10KT for Wed
afternoon.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

AVIATION...AGM
DISCUSSION...Melo