Lafayette, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

004
FXUS63 KIND 222348
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
748 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record breaking heat today with highs in the low to mid 80s

- Severe weather likely this evening with large hail and damaging
  winds the main threats

- Cooler on Monday with a warming trend through the workweek

- Showers and thunderstorms possible Thursday and Thursday Night

- Dry with slightly below temperatures Saturday and Sunday

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 747 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Thunderstorms have rapidly formed across northern portions of
central Indiana in a region of increasingly low-upper level forcing
and moistening between 850-700 mb. This forcing is a combination of
FGEN, deep moisture convergence and upper level divergence which
will continue to overspread areas along and to the west of the
ongoing convection into central Illinois. As a result, additional
thunderstorms are expected to move into west-central Indiana before
9 pm.

Over the next few hours this low-upper level forcing will move into
an increasing instability axis (MUCAPE 1000-1500 j/kg) located
generally along and south of I-70. Combined with steep mid-level
lapse rates from 7.5-8 deg C/km and cloud bearing shear around 40
kts, an increasing large hail threat with some hail potentially over
2 inches in diameter will occur, especially with any left splits
from persistent supercell structures.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Through This Evening.

The primary focus for the next 12 hours is the progression of a
potent cold front currently slicing through the southern Great
Lakes. Ahead of this boundary, central Indiana is basking in an
anomalously warm airmass. With 850mb temperatures between 18-22C and
efficient mixing, surface temperatures have soared into the low 80s.
This puts record highs in jeopardy across many sites, including
Indianapolis. The current forecast high is 85 which would tie the
all-time March record for the city.

The environment is quite favorable for large hail today with 1500-
2000 J/kg MUCAPE this evening with equilibrium levels around 10-12km
along with a fairly straight hodograph and 60-70kts of
effective bulk shear.

Latest high-resolution guidance, including the HRRR and NAMNest,
shows convective initiation along the front to the northwest of
Indianapolis between 23Z and 00z. While surface dewpoints in the mid-
50s to low 60s are modest, steep mid-level lapse rates associated
with an overhead elevated mixed layer will provide sufficient
instability for robust updrafts. Initial development may be semi-
discrete, posing a threat for large hail given the elongated
hodographs. However, strong linear forcing along the front is
expected to quickly transition the mode into a line of storms. The
threat for damaging winds will increase once the storms grow upscale
but with the elevated nature of the thunderstorms, large hail looks
to be the bigger threat through much of central Indiana. The front
should clear the southern counties by 04z to 06z, bringing an end to
the severe threat and ushering in a much drier, colder airmass.

Tonight Through Wednesday.

The most jarring aspect of this forecast is the thermal transition.
Behind the front, strong cold air advection will take hold.
Temperatures that were in the 80s this afternoon will bottom out in
the low to mid-30s by daybreak Monday. A secondary shortwave will
pass through the Great Lakes on Monday, keeping cloud cover
prevalent across the northern half of the state. Highs will struggle
to reach 50, representing a nearly 30-degree departure from Sunday.
Brisk northwest winds will make it feel even colder throughout the
day.

Surface high pressure builds in on Tuesday, leading to clearer skies
and light winds, though temperatures remain seasonably cool with
highs in the mid-50s. The high shifts eastward by mid-week, allowing
the low-level flow to return to the southwest. This starts a warming
trend as warm air advection ramps back up ahead of the next late-
week system. Wednesday will see a return to the 60s across much of
the region.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Sunday)...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Wednesday Night through Sunday...

A weak short wave with northwest flow aloft is expected to pass
across Indiana on Wednesday night into Thursday. However, conditions
at the surface will be a bit more favorable for precipitation. A
lingering frontal boundary will be found across Central Indiana and
through Thursday, surface low pressure is suggested to push along
that front, before exiting east and pushing the cold front farther
southeast. Ample moisture appears to be present during this time,
thus chance for showers and thunderstorms will be needed on
Wednesday night as the upper support passes and through Thursday
night as the surface low passes dragging the surface cold front
south. Models suggest an active lower level jet in place at his
time, thus severe weather may be possible.

On Friday morning, some low pops may be used due to potential timing
differences with the frontal passage, but confidence for rain on
Friday is low. This is due to a cooler and drier pattern appearing
to set up for next weekend. Strong ridging is suggested to build
across the western CONUS on Friday through Sunday. This will set up
subsidence and NW flow aloft flowing across the upper midwest into
Central Indiana. A large area of associated high pressure is
suggested to build across the region for the weekend. This will
result in more dry weather with slightly below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 747 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Impacts:

-Northerly wind gusts up to 30kts through 05Z
-TSRA likely over a 2 to 3 hour window, generally after 00Z
-MVFR cigs 03Z through the morning

Discussion:

Conditions are expected to deteriorate to MVFR within the first 6
hours of the TAF period as a line of thunderstorms move from north
to south across central Indiana. TSRA will bring reduced vsbys and
MVFR cigs starting at LAF and progressing southeast to the other
terminals. Large hail will be possible in these storms along with an
increasing threat for damaging winds towards BMG. MVFR cigs then
will continue through the at least the morning. Winds will gust
upwards of 30kts through 05Z. Winds will decrease as we get into
tomorrow but will remain generally out of the north.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

A new record high temperature of 84 degrees was set for today with
the old record being 82 set in 1907. The all time record for March
is 85 degrees and may be set with several hours of heating left in
the day.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Crosbie
SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...KF
CLIMATE...White