Lafayette, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

363
FXUS63 KIND 080524
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
124 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally dry and seasonal conditions today, low chance for
  rain in southern Indiana

- Strong to severe storms and flash flooding possible late Thursday
  into Thursday night

- Additional rain Friday through the weekend with pockets of
  flooding

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Overview.

Dry and pleasant weather is expected for today with seasonable
temperatures. On Thursday, a strong cold front will move into the
region, bringing a risk for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall
that could cause flash flooding Thursday night. This front will then
stall over the area, keeping chances for showers and storms in the
forecast from Friday through the weekend and into early next week,
leading to the potential for flooding with total rainfall amounts of
2 to 4 inches.

Today through Thursday.

The broader synoptic pattern today features mid-level ridging
centered over the Ohio Valley that will gradually suppress southward
as a northern stream shortwave trough digs across the upper Great
Lakes. At the surface, high pressure positioned over the eastern
Great Lakes will maintain a dry easterly to southeasterly low-level
flow across central Indiana. Forecast soundings exhibit a notable
mid-level subsidence inversion along with deep dry air. This dry
airmass and large-scale subsidence will inhibit convective
development today, keeping the entire forecast area dry with
afternoon high temperatures rising into the mid-80s.

The synoptic pattern transitions rapidly on Thursday as a northern
stream shortwave trough deepens over Ontario, driving a surface cold
front south-southwestward toward the area. Ahead of this boundary, a
robust low-level jet will advect an anomalously moist, tropical
airmass northward. PWAT values are modeled to surge toward 2.00 to
2.25 inches, which sits well above the 90th percentile for early
July. HREF and ensemble guidance indicates rapid destabilization
Thursday afternoon ahead of the front, with MLCAPE expanding to 1500-
2500 J/kg. Convective initiation is expected along and ahead of the
front by late Thursday afternoon and evening. While deep-layer
shear remains modest at 25-35 knots, linear forcing along the
front will support organized multicell clusters and transient
supercell structures. Damaging downburst winds and isolated severe
hail represent the primary convective hazards.

A flash flooding threat will develop Thursday night. As the
surface front slows down and aligns parallel to the mid-level
westerly flow, Corfidi vectors indicate a high potential for cell
training. Warm-cloud depths exceeding 12,000 feet will optimize
warm-rain processes, yielding exceptionally high precipitation
efficiency. Localized rainfall rates exceeding 2 inches per hour
are anticipated, capable of producing widespread flash flooding
and areal flooding across central Indiana overnight.

Friday Through Tuesday.

From Friday through the weekend, the surface frontal zone is
forecast to become quasi-stationary across the Ohio Valley as it
encounters a flat sub-tropical ridge anchored over the Gulf Coast
states, blocking its southward progression. Within this weak
steering regime, successive low-amplitude mid-level shortwaves will
track along the frontal zone, interacting with the lingering
tropical moisture reservoir where PWATs remain elevated between 1.75
and 2.00 inches. This setup will support daily rounds of convective
clusters and multi-cell arrays through Sunday.

Medium-range ensemble guidance (GEFS and EPS) exhibits high
consensus regarding a prolonged, heavy rainfall footprint across the
Ohio Valley due to this stalled boundary. Probabilistic guidance
indicates a 60-80% chance of widespread total rainfall exceeding
2.00 inches across central Indiana through Sunday evening. Within
corridors experiencing persistent convective training or repeated
cell tracking, probabilistic clusters indicate a 30-40% chance of
localized totals exceeding 4.00 inches. Given the saturated
antecedent conditions expected from Thursday night`s convection,
this additional rainfall will sustain and exacerbate risks for river
flooding and ongoing areal flooding through the weekend.

The unsettled pattern will gradually transition into early next week
as the main upper-level trough shifts into eastern Canada, allowing
northwest flow aloft to develop over the Midwest. While the primary
stalled frontal boundary will diffuse or push slightly south of the
state, embedded shortwaves within the northwest flow will maintain
daily chance-level probabilities (30-50%) for showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures throughout the period will remain near
or slightly below seasonal normals in the low to mid-80s due to
widespread cloud cover and precipitation, though high ambient
dewpoints in the lower 70s will maintain elevated humidity levels.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

Other than a low chance for patchy, non-dense fog towards daybreak
today, VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with diurnal
cu development towards 15Z. This cu will dissipate towards 00Z with
high cloud coverage increasing through the night tonight. Winds will
generally be light and variable through the TAF period,
predominately out of the north through daybreak, then west to
southwest during the day.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...White
DISCUSSION...White