Lafayette, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

324
FXUS63 KIND 251750
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
150 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch from late this afternoon through Saturday morning for
  southwest portions of central Indiana with 1 to 3 inches of rain
  possible

- Multiple rounds of showers and storms producing torrential
  rainfall and localized flooding later today into the weekend

- Isolated severe storms possible this afternoon and evening and
  again on Friday

- Hot and humid conditions expected for much of next week with
  multiple days in the 90s

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

A ridge over the Intermountain-West along with weak troughing over
Eastern Canada is creating a strong jet streak over the Upper
Midwest today leading to a corridor of broad synoptic lift. This in
combination with a mostly saturated 925-700mb layer and weak mid-
level instability will likely lead to pockets of showers and
thunderstorms throughout the afternoon and into the evening. These
showers should mainly be diurnal, as cooling post dusk should cap
the environment and prevent initiation with forcing primarily
attached to synoptic scale jet dynamics.

Most of these showers and storms should remain mundane, but there is
enough upper to mid level shear for a few pockets of organized
clusters to form this afternoon once updrafts are able to reach 18-
20kft. For this reason a few isolated damaging wind gusts cannot be
ruled out, primarily south of the I-70 corridor. The other potential
concern this afternoon and evening will be localized flooding. The
primary area to watch will be along and south of a line from Sullivan
to Bedford, as over this area are a few lingering, old outflow
boundaries and slightly lower flash flood thresholds due to prior
rainfall. Rain rates will be fairly efficient with this storm
clusters and anywhere in this area that receives 2-3" in a 3 hour
period will be susceptible to flooding.

For tomorrow, the primary forcing will switch to a more organized
mid-level shortwave of which will likely produce numerous to
widespread showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. Initially,
modest isentropic lift ahead of the wave will likely push
thunderstorms into Indiana between 6-9AM. Although severe weather is
unlikely with this first round, a narrow corridor of 750-1500 MUCAPE
south of I-70 could lead to a few strong updrafts with small hail
and gusty winds.

The primary severe threat will be later in the day as
destabilization occurs in a quasi-warm sector. Low level
cyclogenesis is expected across IL throughout Friday, but the
magnitude of pressure depletion is still widely varied amongst
ensemble members. The current most likely scenario is for weak
pressure depletion and the greatest zone of 30kt+ shear and
1500m2/s2 of instability to remain over far SW and S central
Indiana. However, there are a few members hinting at deeper
cyclogenesis and therefor a greater push northward in favorable
parameter spacing. Within this zone, all severe hazards will be
possible, but the primary threat will be isolated tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts.

Flooding will also be a potential hazard tomorrow as generally these
showers and storms will remain over the same areas throughout the
day. Each individual storm will likely progress quick enough to
avoid issues, but the consistency of initiation could lead to narrow
swaths of training storms and 2-4 inches of rainfall.

After the passage of the wave, weak CAA will attempt to push a
boundary through central Indiana Friday night, but the forcing will
quickly push eastward, likely stalling the boundary over the Ohio
Valley on Saturday. This will likely lead to additional showers and
storms, with a low threat for isolated damaging wind gusts within
microbursts. These storms are likely to move slower due to lack of
steering flow, creating an additional flood threat Saturday
afternoon and evening.

In the wake of convection late on Saturday, the upper ridge will
expand into the area with the front lifting away to our north. This
will serve as the transition point towards progressively hotter and
more humid conditions that are likely to last well into next week.
Multiple days with highs in the 90s are anticipated through much of
next week with the highest heat indices of the summer so far rising
into the low 100s during the afternoons. Isolated late afternoon and
evening convection may develop by the second half of next week as
the mid level heights begin to fall back. As the upper ridge will
retrograde back to the southwest by next weekend, will need to
monitor for an increased risk for convective clusters riding along
the periphery of the ridge impacting parts of the region.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Impacts:

- Scattered storms this afternoon and evening

- MVFR ceilings and more widespread showers arrive near daybreak
  Friday

Discussion:

Instability will slowly increase throughout the afternoon, leading to
the inclusion of scattered thunder and will carry a 4 to 6 hour
period of PROB30s at all terminals except for KLAF.

Showers will linger in the vicinity of the boundary across southern
portions of central Indiana tonight in advance of an area of more
widespread rainfall that will expand into the region just before
daybreak Friday. MVFR ceilings are likely to accompany the broader
area of rainfall early Friday.

W/SW up to 10kts this afternoon will becoming light and variable
this evening.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 5 PM EDT this afternoon through Saturday
morning for INZ051>053-060>062-067>070.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Updike
DISCUSSION...Ryan/Updike