Lafayette, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

908
FXUS63 KIND 282307
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
607 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sprinkles and isolated showers possible this evening through 200 AM

- Snow possible Sunday night...transitioning to few rain showers
  AM Monday...impacts possible early Monday from thin coating of snow

- Moderation next week...with more active pattern and potential of
  heavy rainfall increasing into late week/next weekend

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 606 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

Elevated instability (MUCAPE of around 100 J/kg) will move into the
area this evening and may result in a rumble of thunder across
mainly the southwestern forecast area through early evening.

There is a very low chance of gusty winds from the convection thanks
to a near inverted V sounding. Gusty winds of 20-25kt are more
likely though from the cold air arriving from the northeast this
evening.

Graupel is also possible from the showers/isolated storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

The remainder of the weekend may well be central Indiana`s last
mainly dry period before an increasingly active/rainy early spring
pattern prevails through at least early portions of March.  Center
of stronger mass of polar high pressure occupying the north-central
CONUS will slide from southern Manitoba to the northern Great Lakes.
Indiana will continue to catch the southern portions of this ridge
under the belly of the corresponding zonal trough.  Embedded clipper
type disturbance tracking to our north with loan a touch of forcing
to the region tonight...which will combine with a weak fetch of Gulf
moisture overrunning the stalled frontal zone near the Ohio
Valley... yielding scattered sprinkles and generally isolated rain
showers mainly south of I-70 within the 600P to 200A period.

Steadier north-northeast breeze gusting up to 15-20 mph after
midnight tonight will advect core of northern surface ridge
southward into the CWA...with readings falling faster later in the
overnight to upper 20s/low 30s by dawn.  Lower stratus may also
settle into several northern counties in the several hours
surrounding dawn, although decks should be scattering out for most
locations through Sunday AM.
Cold advective flow to continue into Sunday afternoon, only allowing
a slight rebound in temperatures to slightly below normal levels in
the upper 30s to upper 40s.  Brief ample sun should reach most zones
in the midday/afternoon hours ahead of increasing cloudiness from
the southwest that will be maintained most/all of the upcoming
workweek.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 340 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

An increasing active pattern next week will begin with a good chance
of light snow providing possible low travel impacts early Monday. A
perhaps briefly potent wave crossing from the Ozarks to
Kentucky/Ohio Valley should spread the northern/lighter side of its
precipitation shield into the local region during the late Sunday
evening to Monday morning period.  Marginally cold conditions will
favor all snow to start...with possibly brief mixed p-type around
dawn Monday...before a trend to all R- by mid-/late morning Monday
when precip will taper off from west to east.  A thin coating of
snow is most likely near and south of I-74 by 12Z Monday, with any
untreated surfaces possibly being slick for a few hours before
readings climb back above 32F by late morning.

Anomalously strong late winter cold over interior Canada will set-up
a very strong and somewhat confluent zonal H500 pattern across
southern Canada and into northeastern CONUS through much of next
week.  Corresponding areas of strong polar surface high pressure
sliding east across Canada will guide weakly-driven short waves and
associated low pressure centers slowly ENE over the central US/Great
Lakes...placing Indiana within the warm, and increasingly moist,
sectors.  A precipitable water maximum axis is expected to increase
from around 1.00 inch Tuesday to consistently near 1.50 inches into
next weekend. Meanwhile warm/stationary frontal zones extending east
out of various circulations, aligned near/slightly north of the
region, will focus lift...providing periods of scattered to
widespread rain showers.  Rain will be most likely in the
Tuesday...Wednesday night-Thursday... and next weekend time frames,
with the greatest potential for heavy rain next weekend.  Potential
for marginal flooding will increase through the late week into next
weekend, especially if rainfall potential for an additional 2.00
inches or greater is realized next weekend.

Corresponding unseasonable to anomalously mild/warm conditions
should yield widespread 60s by Wednesday and possibly low 70s for
much of the region by Friday.  Springtime humidity will be
noticeable through the mid to late week with dewpoints held in the
mid to upper 50s for most areas.  At least isolated thunderstorms
will be on the table within the Tuesday night to Wednesday night and
again late week/weekend timeframes.  It is too early to determine if
strong to severe storms will occur during either period, although
some of the ingredients will likely be present...such as stronger
shear/helicity Wednesday night into Thursday.  The normal max/min at
Indianapolis through the forecast period is 47/29.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 606 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

Impacts:

- Isolated/scattered showers at most sites through 06Z
- Very low chance for TS at KHUF 00-01Z
- MVFR ceilings at all but KBMG 08-16Z

Discussion:

Isolated to scattered showers from relatively high based clouds will
move across most sites through 06Z. Given the very dry air near the
surface, VFR visibility is expected with these. Cannot rule out TS
at KHUF early in the period, but odds are too low to put in the TAF.
Some graupel is possible as well at most sites, but again too low of
a probability to put in the TAFs.

An area of MVFR ceilings will move in overnight from the NE and will
persist at most sites into Sunday morning.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...50
SHORT TERM...AGM
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...50