Lafayette, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

561
FXUS63 KIND 030135
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
935 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Peak afternoon heat index values between 105 to 110 through Friday

- Extreme Heat Warning in effect through 8 PM Friday

- Thunderstorm chances will increase Friday through the holiday
  weekend

- Isolated damaging wind gusts and localized flooding are the
  primary threats with thunderstorms

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 934 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

No changes needed to the forecast this evening. High pressure
centered over southern Indiana remains in place. Broad subsidence
has kept convection at bay for the most part with some nearby storms
as close as northern Illinois and near the Kentucky border. These
storms have since dissipated with only some debris cirrus lingering.
Clear skies and light winds are expected tonight with muggy lows
in the 70s. Patchy fog is possible in rural area and along rivers.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Overview.

An intense heat wave will continue across central Indiana through
Friday with dangerously hot and humid conditions expected. The
Extreme Heat Warning continues through 8pm Friday with peak heat
index values of 105 to 110 possible each afternoon and little to no
relief from the heat overnight. Look for some slight relief this
holiday weekend into early next week as storm chances begin to
increase.

Today through Friday night...

Upper ridging will continue to break down through the end of the
week allowing for rain chances to eventually return late in the day
Friday from an approaching shortwave. While the ridge should break
down, the hot and humid airmass is already in place so look for
dangerously hot conditions to continue through Friday with little
relief overnight.

Look for large scale subsidence to keep weather conditions mostly
quiet through much of the day Friday. Isolated diurnal convection
can then be expected towards the late afternoon or evening hours as
subsidence decreases. Greater coverage of storms appears possible
towards NW counties due to stronger forcing from the approaching
wave. Deep-layer wind shear for storm organization appears weak, but
strong destabilization and steep low-level lapse rates could support
isolated damaging wind gusts Friday afternoon or evening. Storm mode
will likely be short lived pulse thunderstorms or loosely organized
multicell clusters.

Saturday through early next week...

Guidance depicts a few shortwaves moving through aloft during the
period. Weakening large scale subsidence and at least modest
dynamics from the approaching impulses will provide greater
opportunities for convection, particularly over the weekend. The
greatest storm chances can be expected during the afternoon and
evening hours with strong daytime heating atop an anomalously moist
PBL.

Isolated strong to severe storms are possible given strong
destabilization each afternoon. Forecast soundings also show very
steep lapse rates with high DCAPE values. The primary threat would
be isolated damaging wind gusts from microbursts in the weakly
sheared environment, mainly during the afternoon or evening hours. A
few models also still suggest the potential for a few MCSs to
develop near the region over the weekend. Confidence on this
scenario remains limited due to varying model solutions, but overall
flow could allow for any storm cluster to propagate towards central
Indiana supporting the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts.
Weak deep-layer shear should tend to limit maintenance of any MCS or
storm cluster.

Humid conditions will continue through the weekend while
temperatures remain hot or very warm. Some slight relief from the
heat can be expected this weekend into early next week with
additional chances for convection. Guidance also depicts a front
associated with a more organized shortwave pushing through the area
early next week. ECMWF and GEFS members differ on exact timing and,
but the boundary will likely reinforce low convective chances along
with helping to trend temperatures closer to seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 738 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Impacts:

- Scattered thunderstorms possible late in the day on Friday and
  into Friday night

Discussion:

VFR conditions through tonight except for low probability patchy
ground fog at typically fog-prone terminals.

VFR conditions continue into early Friday afternoon with cumulus
development expected. By around 23z Friday convective development is
anticipated with storms possible until the end of the TAF period
(06z at IND). Storms look to be widely scattered, but could produce
downbursts capable of briefly strong wind gusts. Included a Prob30
group at IND to account for this possibility.

Winds are expected to maintain a generally southwesterly component
through the forecast period. Light and variable conditions are
possible during the overnight hours.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Eckhoff
AVIATION...Eckhoff
DISCUSSION...Melo