Lafayette, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

435
FXUS63 KIND 211328
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
928 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy rain and severe storms are possible this afternoon into
  early Monday

- Flooding threat both river and non-river will increase with
  heavy rain on already saturated soils in some areas

- Below normal temperatures will continue for much of the period

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 926 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

The forecast remains in great shape with only minor adjustments
made. Current Regional Mosaics depict an MCS pushing across MO and
parts of IL with a developing MCV. This complex of storms will
continue to push eastward towards the area bringing the threat for
severe thunderstorms and flooding late this afternoon into the
overnight hours. More information regarding these threats can be
found in the discussion below.

Much of the day will remain quiet before precipitation eventually
arrives. Expect moisture advection to result in greater cloud
cover through the day while also leading to rising dewpoints.
Dewpoints in the 50s this morning should return well into the 60s
to near 70F towards this evening. Look for winds to also gradually
strengthen and become more southerly as the system approaches.
Southerly flow will help warm temperatures well into the 70s to
mid 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Today and Tonight...

This morning will be quiet with increasing cloudiness. A few showers
are possible early this afternoon with some lift ahead of the main
system.

Mid afternoon into the evening, an area of thunderstorms will move
west to east across central Indiana. Mid and low level jets, an area
of surface low pressure and associated warm front, and a Mesoscale
Convective Vortex (MCV) will all combine to provide forcing for the
thunderstorms. Strong moisture advection will bring high moisture
content to the atmosphere. Will go high PoPs all areas at some point
in this time frame.

Shear will be good with the surface low and warm front in the area,
and forecast hodographs show this. Instability should be sufficient
to interact with the shear to provide a threat of severe convection.
There is some uncertainty in the overall strength of instability
given increasing clouds, but advection behind the warm front should
help overcome this some.

Additional thunderstorms may develop behind the initial line per
CAMs, but this is not certain. Will keep PoPs relatively high behind
the line, but then gradually lower them overnight as forcing
diminishes.

The high moisture content of the atmosphere plus the threat of
multiple rounds of storms will keep heavy rain and resultant
flooding a threat across much of the area.

However, there remain some uncertainties that need to be mentioned.
Regarding the severe threat, the MCV may enhance the surface low,
which would increase the threat for tornadoes. The eventual location
of the warm front is uncertain, which will impact where the higher
severe threat is.

Regarding the heavy rain threat, some guidance continues to show a
split of the heavy rain, north of the area (and the surface low) and
down to the south of the area where more storms could rob the
moisture here. Ensemble means also show the heavy rain farther
north, but there are several members still showing heavy rain across
central Indiana.

Thus, even though that parts of the flood watch area may not see
heavy rain, given the anomalously high integrated vapor transport
expected feel the threat remains high enough to continue the flood
watch for all of its current area.

Highs will be dependent on how fast clouds increase, but for now
expect middle 70s north to middle 80s far south. Lows tonight will
be mainly in the 60s.

Monday...

An upper trough combined with some lingering forcing from the
exiting surface low pressure system will keep mainly chance PoPs
around during the day. However, there could be a surface trough
extending west from the surface low which could increase PoPs higher
than expected. Highs will be in the middle and upper 70s.

Tuesday...

Tuesday will be quiet with high pressure. Cooler than normal
temperatures will persist.

Wednesday and beyond...

A weaker upper trough and cold front could bring some showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday. Will keep low PoPs going.

A stronger upper wave may bring more widespread rain again around
Saturday. That far out some uncertainty still exists in the
specifics, so will carry chance PoPs for now. Cooler than average
temperatures will continue.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 632 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Impacts:

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms around 21Z-06Z then scattered
  convection lingers
- Outside of convection, MVFR and IFR ceilings developing mainly
  after 00Z Monday

Discussion:

Some brief ceilings around BKN060 are possible early at KHUF/KBMG.
Otherwise, mid and high clouds will gradually give way to ceilings
around BKN060 by 18-20Z.

An area of convection will likely move in from the west around 21Z
then march to the east through around 04Z Monday. However,
additional scattered convection will develop and persist through the
night. IFR and worse are possible in convection, then overall
ceilings will gradually lower into MVFR this evening and then likely
IFR overnight.

A few wind gusts around 20kt may occur this afternoon late this
afternoon outside of convection.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Monday morning
for INZ028>030-035>037-039-043>048-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Melo
AVIATION...50
DISCUSSION...50