Lafayette, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

580
FXUS63 KIND 211430
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
930 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Partly sunny to mostly cloudy today with chances very light
  rain or sprinkles across southern Indiana

- Colder tonight and Sunday with light snow accumulations late
  tonight through early Monday, mainly east of I-74

- Dry and cold weather for early next week before more rain and
  warmer temperatures mid-late next week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 929 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Low clouds covered a large portion of the northern half of central
Indiana this morning. Satellite also showed additional clouds
upstream across Illinois. Temperatures were in the mid 20s to around
30.

Upped sky cover, especially this morning, based on trends in
satellite and observations. Will have to watch and see if the clouds
will hold temperatures cooler than previously expected, but for now
have left high temperatures alone.

Some light precipitation still looks possible today, mainly south.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 254 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows high pressure over the
northern plains with a ridge axis nosing SE across Iowa to Illinois
and Indiana. For the moment, this was providing mostly clear skies
across the northern parts of Central Indiana. Aloft, water vapor
showed a different pattern. A strong southern jet was found
streaming across the American southwest before streaming to the Ohio
Valley and middle Atlantic States. High and mid level clouds within
this flow were found over MO, AR and southern IL, streaming toward
Central Indiana. Radar even shows a few light rain showers with
these features over MO/AR and and TN. Also noted within the upper
flow was a stronger area of Low pressure over Manitoba and western
Ontario. All of these features will come together to impact our
weather today, tonight and Sunday. Temperatures remained rather
cold, in the 20s.

Today...

Models show the dry and cool high pressure remaining in place at
the surface today, providing cold and dry northwest winds. Dew
points look to remain quite dry through the day in the 20s. However
the active southern jet stream is depicted to push mid and high
cloud across Indiana, particularly across the southern parts by mid
morning and through the afternoon. Forecast soundings through the
day continue to keep dry air in place within the lower levels, as
saturation is hinted at aloft. Thus, some very light precipitation
will be possible mainly across the southern parts of the forecast
area. Given this limited moisture very small pops may be used or the
continued mention of sprinkles. Otherwise, as clouds are expected to
arrive within the mid level flow, we will expect partly sunny to
mostly cloudy skies. Highs should reach the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Tonight...

The high clouds aloft are expected to depart tonight, but they are
suggested to be replaced by some lower level clouds during the
evening and overnight hours. This appears to be due to our other
mentioned weather feature, the upper low over Manitoba. Models
suggest this feature will plunge southward today before beginning to
impact our area tonight with cyclonic flow aloft along with the
passage of an upper trough. Again, this weather system will be
moisture starved as dew points are suggested to the remain in 20s,
due to the surface high pressure system to the west providing
continuous dry and cool northwest winds. Forecast soundings show some
saturation with very low pwats near 0.30. Best saturation appears
across the northeast parts of the forecast area including OKK and
MIE. Thus will have the highest, albeit small, pops at those
locations with lesser chances to the SW, where it appears saturation
will not be attained.  Cold air advection will continue to be in
play tonight with 850MB temps falling to near -12C by 12Z Sunday.
This will lead to lows in the lower to middle 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 254 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Sunday Through Tuesday.

The forecast period begins with a focus on an upper level trough
moving across the state on Sunday. While dynamic forcing is present,
moisture remains a significant limiting factor as prevailing
northwesterly flow prevents any meaningful tap into Gulf moisture.
Forecast soundings show a consistently dry column with dew points
struggling to climb out of the 20s. Despite the lack of deep
moisture, the combination of mid-level forcing and favorable thermal
profiles staying entirely below the freezing mark will support
scattered at least some light snow. Best chances for measurable
accumulation will be across the northeast portions of the area where
forcing is maximized. High temperatures on Sunday will be suppressed
in the upper 20s to near 30, followed by overnight lows in the low
20s.

By Monday and Tuesday, the upper pattern shifts toward a highly
amplified state with a deep trough established along the East Coast
and strong ridging building over the Western U.S. This synoptic
setup places Indiana under a regime of northwest flow and lee-side
subsidence, ensuring dry but cold conditions. Surface high pressure
will build across the region, keeping skies mostly clear but
temperatures well below seasonal norms. Highs on Monday will barely
reach the freezing mark, while Tuesday begins another slow
moderating trend with highs climbing into the lower 40s as the
surface high slides east and winds shift to the southwest.

Wednesday Through Friday.

A significant transition is expected during the middle of the week
as the amplified pattern begins to flatten and shift eastward.
Strong WAA will develop on Wednesday as high pressure moves toward
the Atlantic coast, allowing high temperatures to surge into the low
to mid 50s. This represents a dramatic 30-degree swing from the
weekend chill. However, this warmup comes ahead of a robust upper-
level trough and associated surface low pressure system propped to
impact the Ohio Valley by Wednesday night. Ensemble guidance
suggests a high probability of rain with the main uncertainty being
exact timing. There may be just enough instability could be present
for embedded thunderstorms if the warmer/more moist end up the
ensemble guidance verifies.

Cooler air returns behind the cold front for Thursday but still near
normal. Rain may transition to a light rain/snow mix on the back
side of the system early Thursday before dry air filters in. Long-
range ensemble means indicate the pattern remains active, with yet
another system potentially approaching by Friday. Confidence remains
lower for the late-week period due to timing discrepancies among the
major global models, but a general trend toward more seasonal
temperatures and a more zonal flow regime is favored.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 544 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Impacts:

-MVFR cigs at LAF through 18Z, again after 02Z

Discussion:

MVFR cigs are expected to persist at LAF through 18Z before
improving to VFR as the low clouds are replaced by passing mid-level
clouds. Cloud bases around 050 will then continue through much of
the TAF period before dropping back to MVFR at LAF and IND after
02Z. Snow showers will be possible at times after 09Z with brief
vsby restrictions, but overall VFR should prevail for much of the
remainder of the TAF period. Winds will generally remain
northwesterly at 4-10kts through the TAF period.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...White