Lafayette, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

339
FXUS63 KIND 110143
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
943 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and seasonable through Tuesday

- Showers and a few t-storms late Tuesday and Tuesday night,
  especially north

- Much warmer by next weekend with highs in the 80s

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 943 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Quiet night tonight across central Indiana. Copious amounts of
mid-high level clouds are keeping temps from falling quickly.
Radar imagery shows some returns over far southern portions of the
forecast area. However with ceilings near 12 kft, none of this
rainfall is reaching the ground. The only area of measurable rain
over southern MO will move east across the lower Ohio Valley,
staying south of central Indiana.

Skies will clear out from the west overnight. With light and
variable winds and dry air /dewpoints in the 30s to near 40F/ expect
most locations to see low temps bottom out in the lower-mid 40s by
sunrise. The exception to this will be in the immediate Indy city
limits where the heat island will keep low temps 3-5F warmer.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This Evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

A strong upper level low near James Bay will maintain a general
longwave trough across much of the eastern half of the country into
Monday. Ridging aloft will briefly replace the departing trough
prior to another upper low diving into the eastern Great Lakes by
midweek keeping temperature primarily near to slightly below normal.
Modification of the upper level flow with more substantial ridging
will bring much warmer air into the Ohio Valley by next weekend.

Tonight through Wednesday

Beautiful afternoon in progress as high pressure has built into the
region from the north. Skies were mostly sunny with the bulk of the
mid and high clouds associated with the boundary from earlier this
morning now just south of the forecast area. 18Z temperatures were
in the mid and upper 60s.

Quiet weather is expected into Tuesday as the aforementioned high
drifts southeast across the Ohio Valley. A cold front will move into
the region from the northwest late Tuesday in wake of the departure
of the high. This will bring rain and embedded thunderstorms through
the forecast area Tuesday night before dry and seasonably cool
conditions for midweek.

Mid and high level cloud debris from convection over the southern
Plains may drift back across southern portions of the forecast area
later this afternoon and evening otherwise the presence of drier air
and broader subsidence will maintain largely clear skies into
tonight. A weak boundary will slide south through the region
overnight into early Monday but in the absence of substantial
moisture...anticipate only a brief and subtle increase in mid level
clouds Monday morning with northwesterly flow resuming.

The presence of light flow as the center of the high passes through
early Tuesday could enable an isolated frost risk focused across far
northeast portions of the forecast area but most locations should
remain at or above 40. Return southwesterly flow on the back side
of the departing high will advect warmer air into the region for
Tuesday with winds increasing courtesy of a tightening pressure
gradient ahead of the approaching cold front.

Convection will accompany the aforementioned front as it tracks into
the area Tuesday evening...but the lack of substantial moisture
return ahead of the boundary will limit overall convective coverage
and intensity across the forecast area. The presence of a decent
upper wave in tandem with a 40kt 850mb jet however will likely be
sufficient to maintain rain and embedded thunder into early
Wednesday. Rainfall amounts into Wednesday morning should be
generally at a quarter to half inch or less. High pressure will
reestablish Wednesday with temps a shade cooler than Tuesday as
cyclonic flow aloft establishes in the post-frontal airmass with a
new upper low developing to our north.

Highs Monday and Wednesday will be similar to readings this
afternoon ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Compressional
heating and southwesterly flow ahead of the cold front Tuesday will
enable temperatures warming into the mid and upper 70s during the
afternoon.

Wednesday Night through Next Weekend

High pressure will shift east across the area Thursday with the
upper low moving away to the east and being replaced by broad
ridging aloft. Thursday morning will be chilly but temps and winds
should remain up enough to mitigate much if any frost concerns over
the northeast part of the forecast area. A warm front will lift
across the region late in the week with a transition to much warmer
air for next weekend. High confidence in highs into the lower and
mid 80s by Saturday and Sunday which would be the warmest daytime
temps for the forecast area in over 3 weeks. Despite the presence of
a mid level cap developing...cannot rule out isolated to widely
scattered diurnally driven convection at times Friday through Sunday
with elevated instability in an increasingly warm and moist airmass.

Beyond next weekend...there appears to be the potential for one more
stretch of seasonably cooler temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s
for a few days behind a cold frontal passage on the 17th or 18th.
The pattern may become briefly active prior to Memorial Day weekend
as well with a broad southwest flow aloft developing across the
region. As we near the holiday weekend and beyond into late month
however...the upper level flow regime is supportive of warm and
progressively drier weather for the Ohio Valley with a likely return
to multiple days with highs in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 700 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Impacts:

- Gusty winds up to 20 kts Monday afternoon

Discussion:

Surface high pressure axis centered from the Mid MO valley to the
southern Great Lakes will shift southward across central Indiana
overnight with N-NW winds 5-10 kts becoming light and variable.
Skies will be BKN through late tonight with mid-high level
cirrus/altostratus cloud layers. Despite the light/variable winds,
sufficiently dry airmass and the increasing cloud cover will
preclude any vsby reductions late tonight.

By tomorrow morning surface winds will become westerly while
gradually increasing as the surface ridge axis shifts south. A
reinforcing high pressure area, amplified by the cold waters of Lake
Michigan will push southward across the western Great Lakes. This
will induce a stronger pressure gradient southward into central
Indiana during the mid-late afternoon. In addition, forecast
soundings show steep low level lapse rates up to around 6kft with
sufficient moisture to generate a broken cumulus cloud field
developing during the afternoon. Therefore, have added BKN wording
to the ceilings for a period during peak heating as well as wind
gusts to 18 kts from the NW until around 00Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Crosbie
AVIATION...Crosbie
DISCUSSION...Ryan