Lafayette, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

541
FXUS63 KIND 230754
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
254 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY from 1AM Friday through 10AM EST
  Saturday

- Near zero or Subzero lows possible early this morning and
  tonight along with wind chills at or below -10F

- Winter Storm Warning for central Indiana Saturday Through Sunday

- Total snowfall amounts as high as 10 inches with high confidence
  in 6+ for the I-70 corridor and points to the south

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 251 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

Deep troughing continues through the short term and a cold weather
advisory is in effect through Saturday morning. Early this morning,
a cold front extending off of a polar low N/NE of the Great Lakes
brings a surge of very cold arctic air and some of the coldest air
of the season begins. Lows this morning will drop to the mid teens
in the south and near 0 degrees in the north. Highs tomorrow will
range from near 5 degrees up to 20 degrees followed by lows from -3
to +5. During the short term (through 7am Saturday), wind chills
will be below zero for most of the time. This morning could see wind
chills as low as -20 and expecting down to -15 tomorrow night. If
you must be outside, limit time outside, wear layers, and check on
those more vulnerable to the cold.

Along the front this morning, wind gusts of around 25 mph will be
possible at times with sustained winds of 10-15 mph likely through
at least the afternoon. Surface high pressure will begin expanding
into the area late today, allowing winds to weaken to 5 to 10 mph.

No precipitation is expected in the short term and the forecast area
should see some sunshine most of Friday before cloud coverage
increases tonight ahead of the approaching winter system.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 251 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

Friday Through Sunday.

The primary focus of the long term period remains a potent and
highly impactful winter storm system slated to traverse the region
this weekend. Confidence continues to increase in a widespread
snowfall event with significant impacts to much if not all of
central Indiana. While the exact track of the surface low remains
subject to minor shifts, the overall synoptic setup continues to
become more clear.

The storm will evolve in two distinct phases. The first phase begins
Saturday as a strong Arctic high, propped up to our north with a
central pressure exceeding 1050mb, maintains a steady northeasterly
wind. This will advect very cool and dry air into the area,
characterized by dew points in the single digits. This dry air
entrainment will help to initially suppress snowfall rates and keep
overall impacts on the lower end through the evening, as it will
take time for the column to saturate from the top down and keep
snowfall rates on the lower end.

The second and more impactful phase late Saturday night into Sunday
morning as a secondary low travels through the Tennessee Valley.
This setup will tap into a deep, moisture-rich plume of Gulf air,
overrunning the entrenched Arctic airmass. We expect widespread snow
with increasing rates during this time. Latest guidance, including
the 18Z and 00Z model suites, shows strong lift within a deep DGZ,
which is highly favorable for efficient snow production. Heavy f-gen
banding is also a significant concern, which could lead to a narrow
corridor of higher totals. Thus we expect the greatest impacts to be
within this secondary aspect of the system.

Regarding snow totals, while raw model Kuchera method snow totals
continue to suggest the potential for 12+ inches, the same model
snow depth is much lower due to the expected compaction that will
occur over this longer fused event and gives more reasonable snow
totals. Current thinking places a widespread 5 to 9 inch
accumulation across the I-70 corridor and points to the south, with
the highest totals likely across south-central Indiana where the
best overlap of moisture and forcing resides. There may be some
areas that see 10+ towards southern Indiana but we think those
higher totals should remain south of the forecast area. To the
north, 4-6 inches seems reasonable, potentially as far north as the
Lafayette to Kokomo area. Within any banding across southern
Indiana, a few rumbles of thunder will also be possible with models
suggesting there may be just a hint of instability.

Overall confidence in a significant event is high, though alternate
scenarios still exist. A further southward shift in the storm track
could lead to a sharper cutoff in snow totals for our northern
counties. Conversely, the recent northerly trend in model guidance
suggests that if the low tracks further north, the axis of heaviest
snow could shift closer to the I-70 corridor.

Beyond the snow, dangerously cold weather will be a major story.
Highs on Saturday and Sunday will struggle to reach the mid-teens,
and with steady northerly winds, wind chills will plummet to
between -10 and -20. This brutal cold persists into next week
with overnight lows potentially dropping below zero, especially
where a deep snowpack is established.

Monday Through Thursday.

The brutal Arctic airmass remains firmly entrenched Monday through
Wednesday, with temperatures averaging 10 to 20 degrees below
normal. Monday will be particularly harsh with a highs in the
single digits and lows potentially sub-zero. While a very slight
"recovery" is possible on Tuesday as highs reach near 20
persistent northwesterly flow will keep the region susceptible to
reinforcing shots of Arctic air through the end of the week.
Daytime highs on Wednesday and Thursday are currently forecast to
struggle to reach the teens, with overnight lows remaining in the
low single digits. If a significant snowpack remains from the
weekend storm, these temperatures could trend even lower due to
increased albedo and radiational cooling.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1243 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

Impacts:

- Gusty winds increasing to 20-25 kt tonight through this afternoon

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period. A cold front will
continue to through the sites during the TAF period, with winds to
the northwest. Winds speeds will increase tonight and some gusts of
20-25 kt are possible with the frontal passage. Gusts should drop
off some during the day tomorrow but sustained winds of 10-15 kt
are expected to continue through the afternoon. Cloud coverage
will start to increase at the end of the period, ahead of an
approaching winter system.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051-052.

Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for
INZ021-028>031-035>042.

Winter Storm Warning from noon Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for
INZ043>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...KF