Lafayette, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

945
FXUS63 KIND 041414
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
914 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures warming this week to well above normal

- Rain chances return late week with the potential for a stronger
  system Thursday into Friday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 914 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

Satellite imagery shows low-level stratocumulus beginning to
dissipate across portions of north central Indiana. Continued but
gradual clearing is likely through the morning hours. At the same
time, satellite shows high cirrus streaming in from the west. These
should increase this afternoon leading to a return of mostly cloudy
skies. Temperatures today will be warmest where stratocu clears out
earliest. Expect highs in the mid/upper 30s to near 40 in locations
that see sunshine the longest. In cloudy areas, expect temps
topping out in the low to mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 207 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

Early this morning, a large area of lower clouds extended from
portions of central Indiana northwest into Iowa and Wisconsin. The
clouds continue to move slowly south and east. At the surface, high
pressure was building in from the west. Aloft, colder air was moving
in.

Believe that cloud cover will linger into the morning hours, but as
the axis of the surface high along with the colder air aloft move
east, clearing should occur. Will go more pessimistic with sky
cover than guidance (which hasn`t been doing well anyway) this
morning.

While the lower clouds exit, higher clouds will be increase this
afternoon ahead of an upper wave. Thus will keep skies partly
cloudy. Some uncertainty exists in highs today depending on how
exactly the cloud cover evolves, but will stick with highs in the
lower 30s northeast to around 40 southwest.

The upper wave will move through the Great Lakes tonight, but all it
will bring to central Indiana are some clouds. The clouds along with
southerly winds on the west side of the high pressure will keep low
temperatures in the middle 20s to around 30.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 207 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

The forecast for Monday through Wednesday remains similar. Late today
through Monday, the west CONUS ridge will start to break down as a
mid level vort max introduces height falls across the Plains
eventually leading to quasi-zonal flow. In return, broad pressure
depletion over the Plains will shift the mean flow to the SW, of
which will lead to a surge of WAA across the Ohio Valley. The initial
surge of warm air will likely be a bit more subdued without strong
cyclogenesis, with temperatures likely to remain below 50 on Monday.
However, continued SW flow will push temperatures further above
seasonal for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 50s
(potentially breaking 60 on Wednesday depending on cloud cover). The
greater overall pressure gradient over the Ohio Valley Monday
through Tuesday will increase winds, initially sustained between 6-
10mph on Monday, increasing to 8-12mph with gusts on Tuesday. There
will be weak, broad lift associated with the aforementioned area of
pressure depletion to the north, but this should not result in
anything more than an increase in cloud cover, with all rain
remaining well north of the area.

As mentioned in previous forecasts, A more substantial weather
system is expected to develop late next week attached to a deep
trough ejecting eastward into the Plains. Ensemble guidance has
started to point towards a consensus in a more organized area of
cyclogenesis Thursday through Saturday, that initially should lead
to some rain chances on Thursday within broad isentropic lift and
moisture return. However, that is where the similarities end, with a
very large range in placement/progression of the low level pressure
center Friday through Saturday. As such, confidence in details such
as precipitation amounts, types and timing remain low. The ensemble
mean does point towards a more norther/warmer solution for
Friday/Saturday, therefor that is where the forecast will currently
point towards, but this may change as we continue to ingest more
data in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 559 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings lasting into mid-morning, mainly at KIND/KLAF

Discussion:

Confidence is low in ceilings at KHUF/KBMG early in the period and
in the timing of improvement at all sites.

Western edge of the lower clouds has eroded, but some redevelopment
has occurred near KBMG. Part of the western edge has begun to sag
south again. This places KHUF/KBMG in higher uncertainty on MVFR
ceilings. Will at least include a TEMPO for KBMG.

The next question is when the clouds will break up. Guidance
continues to be very quick with this, but it may take longer
depending on the exit of the colder air aloft. Will keep mid-morning
as the time for now.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Eckhoff
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...Updike
AVIATION...50