Lafayette, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

187
FXUS63 KIND 151703
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
103 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms this evening into tonight, greatest threat
  after midnight

- Generally dry Thursday and Friday with low rain chances Thursday
  afternoon

- Near record warm temperatures expected through Saturday with
  multiple days in the 80s and lows in the 60s

- Much cooler Sunday into early next week with the potential for
  frost

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 103 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Overview.

An active and progressive spring pattern remains firmly in place
across the Ohio Valley with a weak MCV moving across northern
Indiana and a broader surface low currently across Iowa. This system
is embedded within a broad southwesterly flow regime that is
characterized by an 80-90 kt upper-level jet. As the LLJ ramps up
this evening into tonight, thunderstorms are expected with the
potential for damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms. While a
brief period of ridging will bring a temporary reprieve on Friday, a
strong cold front is expected to sweep through the region on
Saturday with additional thunderstorms expected. This transition
will usher in a much cooler airmass for the early part of next week,
introducing potential frost concerns for the local area.

Through Tonight.

The latest water vapor imagery and regional radar mosaics highlight
an MCV currently moving through northern Indiana. This feature is
expected to remain north of the forecast area with a dissipating
boundary closer to the I-70 corridor. Recent high-resolution model
guidance keeps the convection this afternoon north of the forecast
area associated with the MCV with additional development across
Missouri and western Illinois towards 18-20Z as skies gradually
clear and instability increases. Diabatic heating is already pushing
temperatures into the upper 70s with dewpoints in the low 60s. This
environment should yield MLCAPE values of 1200 to 1800 J/kg by peak
heating. Effective bulk shear of 35-45 kts will be sufficient for
organized multicellular structures if convection can hold together
as it moves further into Indiana after 00Z.

The primary threat with this activity will be damaging wind gusts.
High DCAPE values exceeding 800 J/kg and steep low-level lapse rates
will support efficient downward momentum transfer in collapsing
cores. A secondary round of convection is likely as the LLJ cranks
up to 40-50 kts after 06z. This will sustain elevated convection
through the overnight hours, though the severe threat should
gradually wane as the boundary layer stabilizes after sunset.

Thursday through Friday Night.

The aforementioned MCV is forecast to exit to the east by late this
evening, leaving behind a trailing surface trough. While scattered
showers remain possible on Thursday, the overall trend will be
toward drying as subsidence increases across the region. Friday
looks to be the warmest and driest as strong warm air advection
ahead of the next major trough pushes 850mb temperatures toward the
90th percentile of climatology. Highs in the low to mid 80s are
probable, and record high minimums in the 60s are also at risk as a
humid airmass remains entrenched across the state.

Saturday through Wednesday.

GEFS and EPS output shows high confidence in a significant pattern
shift beginning on Saturday. A deep longwave trough will eject out
of the Rockies, and ensembles are in good agreement on a strong cold
front crossing Indiana during peak heating. Given the robust
dynamics associated with this system, another round of severe
weather is possible, although timing differences between the faster
GFS and slower ECMWF solutions still need to be resolved.
On the backside of the front, a 1030mb surface high will slide south
from Central Canada. Ensemble means indicate temperatures dropping
15-20 degrees below normal for Sunday and Monday. Lows Sunday night
and Monday night are currently projected to be in the low to mid
30s. Those with sensitive vegetation should prepare for potential
frost or freeze headlines as the seasonably cold air settles in. The
EPS members suggest a gradual moderating trend by Tuesday and
Wednesday as the high shifts east, returning the region to
southwesterly flow and more tranquil conditions to start the mid-
week period.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 103 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Impacts:

- Southwesterly wind gusts to 30kts through the TAF period
- Low chances for TSRA as early as 23Z, more likely after 06Z
- MVFR cigs and MVFR to IFR vsbys during convection

Discussion:

VFR conditions expected for much of the TAF period with increasing
chances for MVFR cigs during and after periods of convection that
could begin as early as 23Z. Convection chances look low through
much of the evening hours but as the LLJ ramps up during the late
evening and overnight, convection chances will increase. Confidence
is highest in the 06Z to 11Z timeframe with cigs dropping to around
015 during periods of convection. Southwesterly winds will
frequently gust up to 30kts through 00Z, then more towards 20 to
25kts after 00Z through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...White
DISCUSSION...White