Lafayette, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

542
FXUS63 KIND 022257
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
657 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wet pattern through Saturday, with multiple rounds of showers and
  storms expected, which may produce occasionally heavy rainfall
  and renewed flooding along area waterways

- Strong to severe storms possible late today into tonight, as well
  as Friday afternoon and evening into Saturday; all hazards possible,
  though damaging winds will be the primary concern

- Drier and cooler weather for early next week. Potential for lows
  in the low to mid 30s Monday through Wednesday mornings; Frost or
  freeze conditions possible

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 557 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Surface mesoanalysis shows an instability axis extending across the
MS river valley, which much lower instability located over central
Indiana, (MLCAPE around 500 j/kg). ACARs soundings from IND and the
18Z sounding from Lincoln, IL show a pronounced inversion centered
around 500 mb, which is substantially limiting mid level lapse rates
to less than 6 deg C/KM. However there are steep lapse rates between
the surface and 3 km. DCAPE values measuring downdraft potential run
between 500-800 j/kg extending along and just east of the Wabash
valley. The threat for severe hail looks extremely minimal given the
weak mid level lapse rates and overall instability. In addition
given cloud bases around 5kft the and meager low level shear, the
threat for any isolated tornado is very low.

Given the organized nature of the convective line in Illinois, cell
mergers and cold pool generation will foster some threat for
damaging wind gusts as the activity moves eastward into central
Indiana. The leading edge of the threat for severe winds will reach
the US 31 corridor around 8 PM EDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

An active next 24 hours expected for Central Indiana with strong
winds and a few rounds of potentially strong storms.

Soundings from around the region show a mixed boundary layer
resulting in strong winds within the low level jet mixing down to
the surface. The Wind Advisory remains in effect through 7PM for
sporadic gusts to 45 mph. Winds remain elevated overnight; however
gusts should drop off after sunset and remain under 30 mph through
Friday.

Satellite imagery and observations show Central Indiana firmly
within the warm sector of a 1000mb low near Des Moines, IA. The
overall system shifts to the northeast tonight into the Great Lakes
while weakening, taking the best forcing for ascent and wind shear
with it. A trailing surface front stalls out tonight over North
Central Indiana as the entire system pulls away. While this isn`t
the best scenario for strong to severe storms, there is still a
marginal threat for severe weather this evening and tonight.

Latest IND ACARs sounding shows a moist boundary layer with dew
points around 60F and CAPE nearing 500 j/kg. CAPE isn`t overly
impressive and is expected to wane some going into this evening as
mixing dries out the boundary layer some. Also noting weak mid to
upper level lapse rates which could limit the overall severity and
coverage of storms as they track east into Central Indiana. CAMs
have been consistent in showing plentiful shear to support strong
to severe storms, however the overall profile including instability
and upper level lapse rates are only marginal. And with the best
dynamics and forcing closer to the parent system, confidence is
increase in the best severe threat remaining closer to the IL/IN
border and in NW portions of Central Indiana. 18z ILX special
sounding confirms the marginal environment for severe weather this
afternoon. In fact, the environment over Central Illinois is a
little more supportive for supercells this afternoon with more
instability and higher shear. Latest Hi-res guidance does show storm
initiation within the 19-21z timeframe in South Central Illinois and
near the MO border , however hi-res ensemble probs depict storms
struggling to vertically grow above 30kft. Based on the current
environment and hi-res guidance trends, thinking the best chance at
any severe storm will likely remain in Western Indiana before sunset
with damaging winds being the main threat. But as mentioned above,
the limiting factors to severe weather should prevent the high wind
or tornado threat from being widespread in Indiana. Nonetheless,
best timing for storms to approach the IL/IN border is around 22z-
23z, pushing east/ northeast 00z-02z into Central Indiana. Do think
discrete cells will begin to merge into a mixed mode line with
embedded lower topped supercells and bowing segments. There is a
strong signal that storms fall apart during their eastward
progression as the entire mid latitude system and supportive
dynamics pull away. Lower confidence exists in any severe threat
this evening and tonight east of the I-65 corridor.

In addition to the marginal severe threat, any thunderstorm has the
potential to produce heavy rain and flash flooding, especially in
areas that get repeated rounds of storms tonight where 1-2" of rain
could fall locally. Outside of those localized areas, widespread
rainfall amounts through tonight should remain around or below a
half inch.

Later tonight, The cold front won`t make it fully into the area
before pushing back northward in response to development and
northeastward movement of another low pressure system tonight into
Friday. This set up keeps the area within the warm sector and
continuing thunderstorm potential into the day on Friday. With the
increase in the LLJ ahead of the front overnight, CAMs has been
consistent in showing additional storms developing in the 04-08z
timeframe within Central Indiana. Weak, yet positive theta-e and
moisture advection right along the front may increase instability
enough to support a few storms overnight. With a marginally unstable
and humid environment and sufficient shear still present for
organized storms, would not be surprised to see a strong to severe
storm or two behind the main line of storms. This secondary round
likely will not be as widespread as the first round, remaining more
isolated to scattered in nature. A marginal damaging wind and hail
threat exist with this second round but not expecting anything
significant.

For Friday, Soundings indicate early day capping eroding eventually
being overcome by diurnal heating, with much better instability in a
modest shear environment supporting potential for strong to severe
storms Friday afternoon into evening as the front remains draped
over North Central Indiana. Overall, Friday should not be a washout
of a day. Expect cloudy, warm, and humid conditions the first half
of the day with storms developing along the front within Central
Indiana during the afternoon. Highs once again will be above average
in the 70s to near 80.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

A progressive and modestly amplified upper-level flow pattern
currently exists across the CONUS. Broad troughing is found over the
western US with ridging over the east. Low-level flow has largely
been out of the southwest across the Mississippi and Ohio River
valleys, which has lead to generally warmer-than-average
temperatures over the past week. Additionally, occasionally
shortwaves have been ejecting from the deeper trough over the west.
These features have provided us with periodic chances for showers
and storms as well.

Things change as we head into the long range, however, as the
western trough begins to drift eastward. By late Sunday into early
Monday, the trough axis is modeled to be over the Great Lakes.
Northwesterly flow aloft returns to the Midwest, with colder air
streaming southward. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement showing
a trend towards cooler temperature through much of next week. Near
to slightly below normal readings are favored, with daily highs in
the 50s to near 60 and lows in the 30s. Multiple nights next week
have the potential to be near or even below freezing. As such, the
probability of frost and freeze conditions is increasing.

Days 8 - 14: Longer range ensembles hint at a return to the current
pattern, featuring troughing out west with ridging to the east. A
trend towards warmer-than-average temperatures and a more active
storm track is favored around mid-month.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 656 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Impacts:

- Line of convection will move through the sites from west to east
  through about 04Z

- Gusty winds will continue early, but speeds will gradually diminish

- MVFR ceilings return overnight and will persist into Friday

Discussion:

A line of convection will move east through the sites this evening.
Strong to severe convection is possible. Otherwise, gusts over 40kt
and IFR conditions are possible in any storm.

After the line passes, VFR conditions will persist for a time.
Additional scattered convection will be around, but confidence is
not high enough to include any mention of thunder.

MVFR ceilings will move in overnight and persist into Friday,
potentially until mid-afternoon. Additional showers and some storms
may develop Friday afternoon.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...Eckhoff
AVIATION...50