Lafayette, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

134
FXUS63 KIND 301738
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1238 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued significant cold expected through at least Saturday,
  with highs largely in the teens, lows near to just below zero, and
  wind chills frequently below zero

- Scattered flurries late today and tonight

- Temperatures are unlikely to reach the freezing mark before mid
  week next week at the earliest

- Best chance for precipitation will be Tuesday into Wednesday next
  week with a potentially impactful winter system

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 907 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Only minor updates to the forecast this morning. We nudged low
temperatures downward over rural areas for tonight, since
radiational cooling potential looks to be maximized for a couple
hours between 00z-09z. Temperatures likely drop to between 0 and -10
with locally cooler spots as low as -15 degrees, especially across
our eastern counties. After about 09z, clouds increase from the
north and winds pick up as well. Ambient air temperature begin to
warm thereafter but the increase in wind should allow apparent
temperatures to remain in the 0 to
-15 range.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
Issued at 257 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Skies have remained mostly clear longer than anticipated early this
morning as a thicker mid level deck associated with a fast moving
upper wave gradually sags south while stratus across the lower Great
lakes into the northern part of the state continues to struggle in
its push into northern portions of the forecast area. With near calm
winds...this has led to a wide variation in temperatures with 07Z
readings ranging from near -10 over localized spots in the northwest
part of the forecast area to the lower teens across far southern
counties.

A deep...amplified upper trough elongated east to west remains
anchored over the eastern half of the country. An upper low will
close off on the western end of the trough over the Great lakes
today then pivot into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by early
Saturday. This will serve to only further amplify the upper trough
into the weekend while enabling another surge of bitterly cold polar
air to spread across the area tonight into Saturday as a near 1050mb
high moves into the northern Plains.

CAMs continue to be overly aggressive with fog development early
this morning and this is largely due to not properly initializing
the dewpoints which are several degrees colder than guidance. There
remains potential for localized patchy freezing fog over the next
few hours focused especially to the northeast of the Indy metro but
confidence remains low in more widespread development at this point.
Slick surfaces will be possible where fog does form.

While there will be sun to start...the overall trend will be for
cloud cover to increase into this afternoon as moisture becomes
trapped beneath a boundary layer inversion. Lapse rates steepen by
late day and while the moisture layer is shallow...flurries are
possible...most notably across the northern half of the area...
lingering into tonight as the upper low swings through the region. A
lake effect snow band will organize by this evening across northeast
Illinois but as low level flow backs from northeast to a more
northerly direction overnight...the band will reorient due south off
Lake Michigan and may be able to make it as far as Carroll/Howard/
Tippecanoe Cos in a much weaker state prior to daybreak Saturday.
Not anticipating any accumulations but flakes will linger all night.

Temps/Wind Chills...highs will rise into the mid and upper teens
this afternoon before dropping back to near zero or just below zero
tonight. The combination of lingering low clouds and slightly
stronger winds prompted nudging low temps up slightly from the model
blend which also bumped up minimum wind chills. There remains a
distinct possibility that a few locations will see wind chills
briefly bottom out in the -15 to -10 range but think much of the
area will hold between -10 and 0 degrees. Will hold off on
introducing a Cold Weather Advisory for tonight for that reason and
continue to highlight the bitter cold via a Special Weather
Statement.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 257 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Broadly speaking, guidance is in decent agreement through the long
term period in the pattern remaining fairly amplified, with a few
opportunities for precipitation, including potential for another
accumulating snowfall mid week as a system develops and takes a
fairly classic Panhandle hook track.

While larger scale guidance is in relatively good agreement, there
is more significant disagreement on the potential for additional
Arctic intrusions into the region, and forecast temperatures may be
optimistic in spots as a result - particularly late next week if
another blanket of snow falls and another strong Arctic high drops
into the central US.

Aside from the mid week system, potential will exist for some lake
effect flurries or snow showers Saturday morning across portions of
the area, along with a slight chance of snow late Sunday night into
Monday morning as a weak, fast-moving upper wave slides across the
area, and then late in the week as a clipper system drops through
the Great Lakes.

Generally, while some modest improvement may be in the offing on
temperatures, the overall expectation is for continued cold, a few
opportunities for wintry precipitation (particularly mid week), and
little expectation of significant change over the coming week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1238 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings tonight into Saturday
- Scattered snow showers overnight, especially after 07z.

Discussion:

An mid/upper-level trough is dropping southward out of the Great
Lakes today and will bring scattered snow showers tonight into
Saturday. Some lake enhancement is possible, which could lead to a
few heavier snow showers with brief visibility reductions. A Prob30
group was introduced to LAF and IND where the best chance of lake-
enhanced snow showers currently exists.

Aside from snow shower potential, stratus will move south in tandem
with the upper-level disturbance. MVFR ceilings are expected to
develop during the night into the day Saturday. Some clearing is
possible Saturday expect immediately downwind of Lake Michigan.

Winds remain light and variable today mainly out of the north
(varying from northeasterly to northwesterly at times). Speeds
increase on Saturday and become northerly behind a cold front
expected around 15z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Eckhoff
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...Eckhoff