Lafayette, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

312
FXUS63 KIND 012251
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
551 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A mix of snow, sleet and possible freezing rain is expected
  late tonight into Monday morning

- Highest snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are expected in a
  narrow band south of the I-70 corridor, likely from near Terre Haute
  to Greensburg

- A light glaze of freezing rain is possible over southern portions
  of the area, but confidence in ice accumulation remains low at this
  time

- Warming trend and daily rain chances for much of the week into the
  weekend. Heavy rainfall potential at times may lead to flooding
  concerns

&&

.SHORT TERM (This Evening through Monday)...
Issued at 217 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

Stratus is steadily eroding early this afternoon as drier air
filters down through the boundary layer. Mid and high level clouds
are already expanding into the region from the west. 18Z
temperatures ranged from the mid 30s north to mid 40s over south
central Indiana.

Before the onslaught of rain set to come in waves throughout the
upcoming week and into next weekend...winter is set to offer a
parting shot to the forecast area late tonight and Monday morning
that is likely to be more of a nuisance than cause substantial
impacts. The snow and ice forecast remains tricky with multiple
factors that could end up minimizing the overall threat. The short
range model suite offers some consistency but this remains an
overall low confidence forecast with respect to precip type and
amounts.

Strong high pressure will shift east into New England by Monday
morning as an inverted surface trough pivots from Texas into the
Tennessee Valley. A strengthening baroclinic zone developing north
of the inverted trough will spread east across the Missouri Valley
this evening and into and across the region late tonight into Monday
morning. Deeper moisture will be confined largely to areas south of
the region for much of the night due to the influence of the strong
high pressure to the northeast. This will keep a dry airmass over
central Indiana into tonight and will likely cause a delay in
precipitation reaching the ground at least initially as the lower
levels slowly saturate with the arrival of a low level jet from the
southwest late evening into the early overnight. Until the boundary
layer fully saturates...flurries or sprinkles are possible along
with light sleet pellets as well as the aforementioned warm nose
builds into the region.

Once the boundary layer reaches near saturation after 06Z...
steadier precipitation will develop with an axis of mainly sleet and
freezing rain setting up somewhere across the lower Wabash Valley
with predominantly snow further north. A brief 1-3 hour period of
briefly heavier precipitation rates are possible during the predawn
hours as deeper moisture and the best lift align. As the warm nose
shifts east closer to daybreak...snow should become the primary
precip type across much of the area before shifting away to the east
by 14-15Z Monday.

Snow and ice accumulations remain highly uncertain because of
several variables that the CAMs continue to struggle with even
inside of 12 to 18 hours. We will touch on these below.

1) the remnant dry airmass and how quickly that will be eroded by a
top down saturation process.
2) the strength of the warm nose and its ultimate impact on precip
type especially the further southwest one goes where a light glaze
of ice is possible.
3) surface and ground temperatures. Temperatures may remain at or
above 32 degrees across the lower Wabash Valley for much of the
night which would mitigate impacts to roads. Further north where
primarily snow is expected...road temperatures are forecast to only
briefly drop to near 30 degrees prior to daybreak. Heavier snowfall
rates are a possibility and would be needed to overcome the
marginal road temps.

On the flip side...there are a couple of consistent themes in play
that presents a bit more confidence in the expectations with this
system. First...there will be a sharp cutoff to snow accumulation on
its northern flank as a result of the presence of the high pressure
to the northeast. Light snow and flurries are possible but rates
will be lower over north central Indiana. The other signal that
continues to show is the development of a narrow WNW-ESE band of
higher snow where the combination of heavier rates along with deeper
moisture and lift and a limited mixing with sleet should be enough
to enable more efficient surface accumulations for a brief time.
There remains some uncertainty in the position of this band but an
axis near a Terre Haute to Martinsville to Greensburg line appears
most plausible at this point in time. Within this band...a quick 1
to 2 inches is possible by Monday morning.

Taking all of this into account...have elected to issue a short
Winter Weather Advisory from 07Z to 14Z Monday over the southern
third of the forecast area. A slushy snow accumulation will likely
impact bridges and overpasses in particular along with untreated
roads that should begin melting right away after daybreak Monday.
Further to the southwest across the lower Wabash Valley...the
possibility of a period with freezing rain and a light glazing of
ice on some surfaces warrants the advisory as well. A major factor
in issuing the advisory is the timing of impacts which will coincide
just before and into the first part of the Monday morning commute
prior to precipitation shifting east by mid morning. Considered
including Morgan/Johnson and Shelby Counties into the advisory as
even a subtle shift north could bring the narrow snow band into
those counties but confidence is just not high enough at this
point. Will need to monitor trends throughout the evening.

Light rain showers will linger across far southern portions of the
forecast area into Monday afternoon as the inverted trough moves
into central Kentucky. Otherwise...stratus will persist up through
the I-70 corridor with brief clearing further north before the
stratus expands back north by MOnday evening.

Temps...lows tonight will be largely in the upper 20s north of I-70
with lower 30s further south. Parts of the lower Wabash Valley may
only briefly drop to 32F before rising again Monday morning.
Temperatures should recover nicely into the 40s on Monday with the
warmest temperatures over northern parts of the forecast area where
some sunshine will aid in surface heating. Monday will be the
coolest day of the next week.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 216 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

Right on cue with the start of meteorological spring in early
March...the upper level pattern across the country will transition
to a more amplified regime highlighted by a deep and persistent
trough organizing across the southwest U S by late week and a ridge
centered off the Southeast coast. Southwest flow developing in
between with tap into moisture both from the Gulf and the Pacific
and spread into the Ohio Valley for much of the extended period.
With a stagnant frontal boundary oscillating across the region and
periodic surface waves tracking along it...an unsettled and wet
pattern highlighted by multiple opportunities for rain and thunder
will impact the region through the next seven days and beyond.

Timing of greatest threats for rain remains a bit nebulous at this
point...but ensemble guidance is beginning to focus in on Tuesday
through early Thursday with the frontal boundary settling over the
forecast area as a warm front ahead of a surface wave that will lift
into the Great Lakes by Thursday morning. After a brief respite....
the front will shift back north of the area by late week into the
weekend as another and more potent surface low tracks into the upper
Midwest on Saturday. This will bring another round of more
widespread rain for Friday and Saturday and at least some potential
for stronger convection to impact the forecast area as an
anomalously warmer and more humid airmass for early March
overspreads the region.

The primary concern however remains on the potential for heavy
rainfall at times and localized/river flooding developing by late
week and into next weekend. Precipitable water values will at times
rise to levels between 1.25 and 1.50 inches which is close to 300%
of normal for early March and in excess of the climatological max
for the March 3 to 8 period. Streamflows remain low as much of the
area has been drier than normal since last Fall. But the increasing
confidence in 3 to 5 inches of rainfall over much of the forecast
area does introduce the threat for at least minor flooding
developing by late this week on the main stem rivers and streams.

Temperatures will rise to well above normal levels by mid to late
week with low to mid 70s possible on Friday. The record high at
Indianapolis is 75 from 1973 on Friday and could be threatened. Warm
and unsettled conditions are likely to continue well into the second
week of March as well.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 550 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

Impacts:

- Wintry precipitation impacting all but KLAF after 05-06Z with
  visibility restrictions. Precip exits mid-morning Mon.
- Primarily light snow briefly mixing with sleet at KHUF and KIND
  with more mixed precipitation at KBMG
- MVFR stratus returning predawn into the day Monday at all but KLAF


Discussion:

A system will bring a wintry mix to most of the sites, with snow and
sleet the primary precipitation types at KIND/KHUF, with all types
possible at KBMG. Ceilings will become MVFR overnight and remain
there for Monday, with the exception of KLAF where VFR should
persist. Generally high end IFR visibility is expected in the snow.

There may be a couple of bands of heavier precipitation which would
create periods of lower IFR visibility and potentially IFR ceilings.
Unfortunately, much uncertainty still remains on where these bands
will set up, so will not include in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EST Monday for
INZ051>053-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...50