Lafayette, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

521
FXUS63 KIND 090530
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1230 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind gusts of 25-40 mph possible tonight.

- Rain expected tonight, an isolated severe storm possible.

- Cloudy and mild on Friday.

- Turning colder for the second half of the weekend with light rain
  transitioning to light snow/flurries before ending

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

Increasing chances of rain into the overnight as numerous rain
showers over portions of east-central Illinois continue to enter
central Indiana...with embedded QLCS bringing the potential for
marginally severe wind gusts.  Overall less favorable environment
over local CWA is featuring noticeably less instability, yet a
modest wind shear maximum along and just east of the Wabash Valley.
Thermal profile through the lowest levels will determine how much of
the low-level jet is mixed down to the surface...with isolated
reports already this evening of very strong winds in Parke and Vigo
Counties...where thin layer near surface is near-dry-adiabatic.
Locations farther east expected to maintain somewhat stable lowest
levels...which could still allow isolated 50+ mph wind gusts amid
potentially better organized convection over next few hours.

Greatest chances of marginally severe winds will be over region`s
northwest quadrant between now and 06Z...with potential later
convective lines farther east/south through the overnight less
likely to bring any marginally severe gusts down to the surface.
Temperatures to hold steady or nudge upward through low-60s amid
widespread 25-40 mph southerly flow this evening.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1224 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Surface analysis shows a roughly 990mb low passing just north of
Chicago as of 05z. Strong mass response has allowed a potent 65-80kt
southerly low-level jet to develop. Warm air advection has allowed
temperatures and dew points to gradually climb this evening, with
the high temperature for the day Wednesday occurring just before
midnight.

ACARS soundings out of IND show gradual destabilization occurring
within the lowest 1km. Above this, an essentially moist adiabatic
lapse rate extend to about 600mb, where a small inversion exists.
Additionally, the atmosphere dries out substantially above 600mb as
well.

Hodographs are very long and curved, and would be quite intimidating
if it weren`t for the generally stable atmosphere. The low-levels
have destabilized somewhat, as mentioned above, but still remain on
the stable side of things. That may change should low-level warm
moist advection continue. Upstream SPC mesoanalysis shows some
instability, roughly 150-250 J/Kg, advecting northward. Though it is
not much, in such a high shear environment it is enough for at least
a marginal threat of severe weather.

Our primary hazards would be severe wind gusts and isolated QLCS
tornadoes. Winds outside of convection are gusting to almost 50kt as
it is, so it really wouldn`t take much to get stronger gusts within
convection. The tornado threat is dependent on the magnitude of low-
level warm moist advection, which so far hasn`t produced much
upstream.

Some mitigating factors include limited instability and lack of
large-scale forcing. Both the vort max and jet max associated with
tonight`s storm system provide the best forcing generally to our
north. Though there is some forcing further south, it is much
reduced. This has been noted within ongoing convection, as the
strongest most organized clusters have been from central Illinois
northward. Points south have seen storms, but the lines have been
broken in nature and not as intense. Additionally, the dry air above
600mb is keeping storms fairly shallow. Though, if an updraft can
punch high enough into the dry air it may briefly allow for an
increase in instability via evaporational cooling and thus locally
enhanced lapse rates aloft. Though, given the magnitude of dry air
this would be short-lived.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows strong high pressure off
the east coast while low pressure was pushing northeast across
eastern KS. This was resulting in a warm and relatively moist
southerly flow in place over Central Indiana. Dew points have surged
into the lower and middle 40s and temperatures were climbing into
the 50s.

GOES19 shows abundant cloud cover over Central Indiana associated
with the approaching low pressure system. Aloft, a short wave was
found over NB and KS, quickly moving northeast. Moderate ridging was
in place over the eastern Great Lakes. This ridging was providing SW
flow ahead of the approaching short wave steering that system toward
the Great Lakes. Radar shows abundant showers and storms ahead of
this upper system pushing into eastern KS, MO and IA. Radar across
Central Indiana shows some initial precipitation pushing into the
Wabash Valley.

Rainy and windy weather will be expected tonight. Models show the
strong short wave pushing northeast to the Great Lakes, dragging the
cold front across Central Indiana tonight. The bulk of the cold air
precipitation will steer well north of Central Indiana, however,
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm, associated with the passing cold
front, will be expected. HRRR shows showers and storms associated
with the front pushing across Indiana late this evening. Thus high
pops will be used tonight as confidence for rain will be high as
this line passes. Forecast soundings are on board showing saturation
within the mid and lower levels. A moderate pressure gradient across
the area along with a 50 kt LLJ associated with this low will
allow for gusty winds tonight. Non-zero severe weather chance due
to this LLJ and and possible shallow convection possible along and
ahead of the front. Confidence for severe weather cannot be ruled
out. A strong surge of cold air is not anticipated in the wake of
the front. Thus plentiful cloud cover will prevent lows from
falling too much, reaching the upper 40s and low 50s.

On Friday...surface high pressure will be building east into Indiana
from the plains in the wake of the cold front. Time Heights through
the day suggest lower level saturation while forecast soundings
show moisture trapped beneath an inversion aloft. Upper level
suggest weak ridging in place over Indiana as the departing short
wave pushes to New England and an new upper low emerges over the
southern Plains. This will place central Indiana between these two
forcing systems. Thus Friday is looking to be a mostly cloudy day
with mid temperatures in the mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

A strengthening upper level low will dive into the upper Midwest
Saturday and serve as the catalyst to reintroduce a more typical mid
winter pattern for the region as it carves out a deep bu t
progressive trough over much of the eastern part of the country for
late this weekend. A quasi northwest flow regime aloft will briefly
modify temperatures through midweek before an increasingly amplified
pattern aloft highlighted by a ridge west and trough east by late
next week.

There is potential for brief clearing of clouds Friday night
as drier air passes through the Ohio Valley before thicker mid and
high level cloudiness quickly expands back over the region in
advance of a cold front. Signals hinting at the deepest moisture may
split central Indiana with an area closer to the front and low
pressure over the northern Great Lakes and a broad area with a
secondary low tracking across the southeast U S. Highs Saturday will
remain in the 40s with temps falling by late day as the cold front
passes. This lack of more appreciable moisture will limit coverage
and keep rainfall light on Saturday. Any lingering light showers will
transition to light snow Saturday night and Sunday but again the
lack of an overall deep moisture profile will limit precipitation to
flurries or scattered light snow showers as the trailing upper low
pivots across the region. It will be noticeably colder Sunday with
highs struggling to reach the freezing mark and brisk W/NW winds
holding largely in the teens.

High pressure will move from the central Plains to the Carolinas
early next week as lower upper level heights retreat back north in
the wake of the trough aloft shifting east. This will enable a quick
recovery in daytime highs recovering into the mid and upper 40s on
Tuesday. Rain chances return late Tuesday into Wednesday as another
front swings through with colder air returning in its wake. Could
see light snow in the backwash of this system as well Wednesday
night and Thursday. The bigger impact beyond Wednesday will be the
potential establishment of a broader and more extended period of
colder than normal conditions that is likely to last beyond the
extended and into Week 2 as the aforementioned amplified upper level
pattern develops across the country. There are hints as well in the
7 to 14 day period of one or more opportunities for more impactful
winter weather.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 708 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

Impacts:

- Wind gusts to 25-35KT through the night
- MVFR ceilings tonight through much of tomorrow
- Isolated VCSH to start, increasing to numerous -RA tonight

Discussion:

An approaching low pressure system and upper short wave will bring
rain and low clouds across the area tonight. Best forcing appears to
arrive tonight ahead of the associated cold front, and TAFs reflect
best chances for precipitation during that window late this evening.
As the front approaches, cigs will deteriorate to MVFR, and can`t
rule out brief IFR conditions with any heavier showers. Rain should
be out of the TAF sites by 12z Friday.

In the wake of the front, time heights and forecast soundings show
lingering lower level saturation, indicative of MVFR cigs
continuing through much of the day Friday.

A moderate pressure gradient will push across Central Indiana as the
fronts and surface low passes tonight. This is allowing wind gusts
of 25-35 kts through around daybreak.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Eckhoff
UPDATE...AGM
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...KF