Lafayette, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

476
FXUS63 KIND 250211
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1011 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and storm chances return tonight through the weekend

- Heavy rainfall and flash flooding a primary concern late Thursday
  through Saturday with 1-3 inches of rain possible

- Hot and humid conditions expected for much of next week with
  multiple days in the 90s

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1011 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Minor adjustments made to going forecast for the overnight, mainly
to PoPs overnight as some decaying convection is likely to push into
portions of the area from the northwest in the next few hours.

Some minimal instability remains in place across the northwestern
portions of the area, along with at least modest effective shear
values along an effective boundary over northern Illinois into
northwest Indiana. This instability will be waning in the typical
diurnal cycle, and thus while shear will help to prolong the
activity a bit, expect a general weakening trend, especially over
our area further removed from the aforementioned boundary.

Will continue to carry chance PoPs dropping to slight chance late
tonight, with a thunder mention, though do not expect the severe
threat that has been present over northern Illinois this evening to
continue into the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

This afternoon through Wednesday...

Quiet weather conditions are ongoing as surface high pressure
continues to shift east across the region. Latest satellite imagery
depicts increasing mid to high clouds from the northwest. These
clouds are associated with a low amplitude wave aloft and an
associated weak surface surface low will move into the region this
evening into the overnight hours.

Modest moisture advection combined with sufficient forcing supports
the potential for some convection. However, uncertainty remains on
convective coverage as a lingering dry airmass will take time to
saturate. Recent CAMs support this showing incoming convection
dissipating as it pushes southeastward at least initially. Once top-
down saturation occurs, isolated to scattered convection can be
expected during the overnight period.

Temperatures have already warmed into the mid to upper 70s thanks to
return flow and plentiful sunshine. Look for milder lows tonight in
the low to mid 60s as cloud cover increases.

Thursday through Saturday night...

Model guidance suggest the front associated with the aforementioned
low pressure system should still be situated across central Indiana
though uncertainty remains on exactly where the boundary will be
located. Daytime heating along with moisture advection ahead of the
front supports the potential for scattered convection to develop
during the afternoon hours Thursday.

Favorable deep-layer wind shear above a moderately unstable
environment suggest isolated strong to severe storms are possible.
The primary threats are isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail.
Tornadoes appear unlikely given weak low-level wind shear. The
severe weather threat is mainly focused over south-central IN as the
front may move across northern portions of the forecast area before
sufficient destabilization occurs.

The front may be briefly shunted further south Thursday night if
sufficient cold pool development occurs. This would limit storm
chances before the front then lifts back north early Friday.
Guidance continues to suggest multiple waves tracking across the
meandering boundary Friday and Saturday. Widespread precipitation is
expected Friday and Friday night with additional chances for
convection through Saturday night. The greatest rain chances are
focused across the southern half of the forecast area where the
strongest forcing and deeper moisture overlap.

Deeper moisture lifting north along with the potential for repeated
rounds of storms supports an elevated flash flooding threat,
primarily Friday and Friday night. Modest enhancement of mid-upper
level flow on top of a modest-moderately unstable environment may
promote additional marginal severe threats, but widespread severe
weather appears unlikely.

Sunday onward...

Rain chances diminish Sunday as long range guidance depicts an
amplifying upper level ridge shifting eastward into eastern portions
of the CONUS. The ridge axis should be centered over the region late
Sunday into Monday and remain persistent through at least the middle
of next week before possibly retrograding. This will likely promote
hot and humid conditions Sunday through much of the following week.
Mostly dry conditions are also expected due to large scale
subsidence. Weak impulses riding the northern periphery of the ridge
may support a chance for convection at some point next week
depending on the location of the upper ridge, but this appears
unlikely at this time.

Some uncertainty remains on exactly how hot temperatures will get
given dewpoints will be well into the 70s, but highs approaching the
low 90s appear increasingly likely by early next week. These
temperatures combined with dewpoints in the 70s could lead to
potentially dangerous heat indices approaching Advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 717 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Impacts:

- Isolated to scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm may
  impact terminals tonight

- Additional storms possible Thursday afternoon

Discussion:

Predominantly VFR conditions expected through the period, outside of
any possible impacts from convection.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are occurring upstream, and
though what limited instability is available will be waning
diurnally, some activity may survive into the area later tonight.
Will carry PROB30 groups for showers at each site for a period late
tonight into early Thursday morning. A rumble of thunder will be
possible but far too uncertain and low probability for mention.

Broken VFR ceiling will continue into Thursday, with increasing
chances for showers and perhaps a few storms as an upper level wave
moves through the Great Lakes and a diffuse frontal zone sags into
the region. Will again carry PROB30 groups, this time for -TSRA, at
all but LAF which should be farthest removed from the boundary
during the most favorable timing for convection.

Winds will be 10KT or less through the period, from 190-210 early,
becoming from 240-270 late tonight into Thursday.

Any obstructions to visibility will likely be primarily tied to
convection impacts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Nield
AVIATION...Nield
DISCUSSION...Melo