Lafayette, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

363
FXUS63 KIND 242303
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
603 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Storm Warning today through Monday morning

- High confidence in 6+ inches near I-70 and points south and up
  to around 12 across southern Indiana

- Cold Weather Advisory Sunday night into early next week; wind
  chills as low as 15 to 20 below at times

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 514 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Satellite imagery shows banded structure to the mid level cloud tops
around 500 mb/6km from VWP data from recent KIND AND KILX radars.
ACARS aircraft soundings from St. Louis shows a collocated layer of
modest lapse rates from 600-500 mb (est 6-6.5 C/km) which further
supports the static stability in this layer and banded structure in
the cloud tops. Also noteworthy is a layer of moderate WAA centered
between 700-600 mb. This will support a continuation of this static
stability and slowly intensifying FGEN in the 600-500mb layer which
is also collocated with the max DGZ.

Forecast soundings show that a period of maximized DGZ snowfall will
continue into the evening hours with banded structures on radar
imagery. Outside of these FGEN enhanced snow bands, relatively high
cloud ceilings around 2-3.5 kft indicate that snow intensity will be
minimized somewhat by effects of sublimation of crystals before
reaching the surface. Snowfall rates up to 0.5 inch/hr are expected
across central Indiana, highest in the FGEN bands. Additional snow
totals from 0.5-2 inches (and locally higher in any persistent
bands) expected through 03Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 310 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Today Through Sunday.

Synoptic Overview.

As of early this morning, surface high pressure remains entrenched
across the Upper Midwest with a 1045mb surface high centered over
far southern Wisconsin, which is helping to maintain a deep arctic
air mass across the Ohio Valley. Synoptic-scale focus shifts to a
positively tilted and increasingly elongated upper-level trough
propped to lift from the Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley
tonight into tomorrow as the aforementioned high begins to break
down. Unlike a classic winter closed low with an associated TROWAL,
this stretched configuration will limit the potential for rapid
cyclogenesis or the development of a robust warm conveyor belt this
far north into the Ohio Valley. Instead, central Indiana will deal
with a long-duration overrunning event where modest but persistent
isentropic lift interacts with a saturated and deep DGZ.

Timing and Evolution.

Initial saturation of the mid levels will occur through the morning,
though a lingering dry layer near the surface associated with the
weakening Arctic high may delay the onset of accumulating snow.
Current guidance suggests snow will begin to overspread the
southwest counties shortly after noon, reaching the Indianapolis
metro towards the mid afternoon but remaining light. Farther north,
toward Lafayette and Kokomo, the onset may be delayed until the
evening to potentially overnight due to more substantial dry air
entrainment. The most intense forcing and highest snowfall rates are
likely late Saturday night through Sunday morning. Models are
picking up on a brief lull towards the late morning before another
surge of forcing helps to bring another round of heavier snow
towards the mid afternoon hours Sunday. Because the trough remains
elongated, snow is expected to persist for over 24 hours, only
gradually tapering to flurries from west to east Sunday evening as
the system`s axis shifts toward the Appalachians. Accumulating snow
will end by around 7PM for most of central Indiana and by 10 PM in
the east.

Snowfall Totals.

Forecast snowfall totals for the I-70 corridor, including the
Indianapolis metro, generally fall within the 6 to 10 inch range,
with higher amounts of 8 to 12 inches possible for areas south of a
Terre Haute to Bloomington to Columbus line. While hourly rates will
likely remain between 0.5 and 1.0 inch, the sheer longevity of the
event will allow for these impressive totals. Compaction may help to
limit the final totals, especially with a very fluffy snow. Thermal
profiles are extremely favorable for high-efficiency snow, as model
soundings show the most significant lift occurring directly within
the DGZ. Consequently, SLRs are expected to average between 12:1 and
14:1 in the south and closer to 18:1 in the north where the colder
air allows for more columns vs dendrites. Another concern going into
the afternoon hours on Sunday will be northerly gusts of 20-25 mph
which may cause drifting with the very powdery snow.

Forecast Caveats and Uncertainty.

The primary caveat to this forecast lies in the potential for dry
air intruding into the northern periphery of the system and limiting
the snowfall. If the surface high to the north remains more
suppressed or if the upper-level trough undergoes further
stretching, the northern gradient of the snow shield could sharpen
which has been a general trend in some of the higher resolution
models over the last 12 hours. This would result in lower totals for
the Lafayette to Muncie corridor, possibly as low as 3-4 inches.
Additionally, because the forcing is broad rather than concentrated,
any subtle shift in the track of the weak surface low could shift
the axis of heaviest accumulation 30 to 50 miles in either
direction. There are less caveats to the south other than the
aforementioned compacting limiting final totals.

Temperatures.

Bitterly cold temperatures will define the thermodynamic environment
of this storm. Highs today and Sunday will struggle to reach the mid-
teens, with overnight lows plummeting into the single digits or near
zero. Wind chill values will remain dangerous through the morning
hours with wind chills generally in the -20 to -10 range as of early
this morning. They are expected to rise above -10 this afternoon and
remain above -10 until Sunday night when additional Cold Weather
headlines will likely be needed. Because surface temperatures are so
far below freezing, chemical treatments like salt will have severely
limited effectiveness.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 310 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Lingering snow from this weekend`s system should come to an end
during the initial hours of the long term period. Immediately behind
the snow will be another surge of dangerously cold weather as a cold
front moves through. Lows each night, from Sunday night through the
end of the week, are expected to be near 0 degrees. Higher winds on
Monday and Tuesday, with gusts of 15 to 25 mph, wind chills will
likely plummet to -10F to -20F but could feel even colder at times.
Additional cold weather headlines will likely be needed again for
the start of the new work week. Winds appear to let up some the
remainder of the week but minimum wind chills below 0 should
persist. Daytime highs won`t provide much relief either as highs in
the teens and 20s are expected through the week. Continue to limit
time outdoors and check on vulnerable neighbors.

Other than the initial lingering snow, passing surface highs will
help to keep much of long term dry. An exception to the dry weather
could come midweek as there is a chance of additional snow across
central Indiana.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 603 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Impacts:

- Snow continues through most of the period

- MVFR with occasional IFR visibility will become predominant
  IFR by overnight

- Mainly MVFR ceilings with potential for IFR at times


Discussion:

Snow will continue through most of the period. Snow may be heavy at
times, mainly overnight into Sunday morning. Predominant MVFR
conditions will become predominant IFR overnight with potentially
lower visibilities in the heavier snow.

Northeast winds will become north Sunday afternoon. Gusts near 20kt
are possible Sunday afternoon.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for INZ021-028>031-
035>042.

Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Sunday night to noon EST
Tuesday for INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for INZ043>049-
051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRB
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...50